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Do Global Pandemics Matter for Stock Prices? Lessons from the 1918 Spanish Flu

Author

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  • Marco Del Angel
  • Caroline Fohlin
  • Marc D. Weidenmier

Abstract

We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. We use the death rate to control for the impact of the global pandemic and war news reported in the New York Times to capture the positive effects of the end of World War I on stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected NYSE stock price index, we show that there is a -.73 correlation between the aggregate stock market and the death rate. Furthermore, vector autoregressions demonstrate that the death rate can explain up to 24 percent of the forecast error variance in the aggregate stock index from September 1918 until the end of the pandemic in March 1920. We also find that the flu had a significant, but varied impact on nine NYSE sectors. The empirical analysis indicates that pandemics can matter big time for stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Del Angel & Caroline Fohlin & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2021. "Do Global Pandemics Matter for Stock Prices? Lessons from the 1918 Spanish Flu," NBER Working Papers 28356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28356
    Note: AP DAE EH
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    3. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8166, CESifo.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    5. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Joe Piacentini & Harley Frazis & Peter B. Meyer & Michael Schultz & Leo Sveikauskas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets and Inequality," Economic Working Papers 551, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    2. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2023. "How would the war and the pandemic affect the stock and cryptocurrency cross-market linkages?," MPRA Paper 117094, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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