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The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Guilhem Cassan

    (UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, CRED - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit - Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas, DeFiPP - Development Finance and Public Policies)

  • Marc Sangnier

    (UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department's epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2022. "The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03670012, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03670012
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03670012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Hospitalizations; Electoral turnout; Municipal elections; Prediction errors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism

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