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MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy

Author

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  • Lionel Fontagné
  • Jean Fouré
  • Maria Priscila Ramos

Abstract

Thinking of how the relative sizes of countries and how the geography of world production and trade will be affected in the long run must be based on sound economic reasoning about the determinants of long term growth. It must also be embedded in a general equilibrium framework that takes account of the interactions among markets and sectors, as well as between countries. This paper takes stock of a three phase research project. The first step consists of deriving and estimating a three-factor (labour, capital, energy) macroeconomic growth model for a large set of individual countries, which fits two forms of technological progress (standard TFP and energy efficiency). The second step consists of recovering the sectoral detail with an energy-oriented Computable General Equilibrium model of the world economy calibrated to fit these projections. In a third step we confront the assumptions for our baseline to alternative scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2016. "Competing Liberalizations: Tariffs and Trade in the 21st Century," Working Papers 2016-12, CEPII research center.
    2. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Alexander Keck, 2017. "Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 36-55, January.
    4. Disdier, Anne‐Célia & Emlinger, Charlotte & Fouré, Jean, 2016. "Interdependencies between Atlantic and Pacific agreements: Evidence from agri-food sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 241-253.
    5. Houssein Guimbard & Maëlan Le Goff, 2014. "Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers 2014-28, CEPII research center.
    6. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    7. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    8. Anne-Célia Disdier & Charlotte Emlinger & Jean Fouré, 2015. "Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-01190840, HAL.
    9. Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City, 2018. "Agriculture in a Global Economy: 2018 Agricultural Symposium," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Special I, pages 1-96.
    10. Jean‐Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2019. "Agricultural Trade Liberalisation in the 21st Century: Has It Done the Business?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 3-25, February.
    11. Fouré, Jean & Guimbard, Houssein & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2016. "Border carbon adjustment and trade retaliation: What would be the cost for the European Union?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 349-362.
    12. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2011. "Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA," Working Papers 2011-23, CEPII research center.
    13. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    14. Meyer, Bernd & Ahlert, Gerd, 2019. "Imperfect Markets and the Properties of Macro-economic-environmental Models as Tools for Policy Evaluation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 80-87.
    15. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2019. "Competing liberalizations: tariffs and trade in the twenty-first century," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 707-753, November.
    16. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2019. "Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2019-18, CEPII research center.
    17. Jean Chateau & Erwin Corong & Elisa Lanzi & Caitlyn Carrico & Jean Fouré & David Laborde, 2020. "Characterizing Supply-Side Drivers of Structural Change in the Construction of Economic Baseline Projections," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 109-161, June.
    18. Jean Fouré & Houssein Guimbard & Stéphanie Monjon, 2013. "Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union?," Working Papers 2013-34, CEPII research center.
    19. Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 28-62, June.
    20. Rob Dellink & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Shaping Baseline Scenarios of Economic Activity with CGE Models: Introduction to the Special Issue," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, June.
    21. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    22. Parisa Aghajanzadeh-Darzi & Cecilia Bellora & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Anaïs Goburdhun, 2015. "Assessing EU trade preferences for developing countries' development and food security [Évaluation des préférences de l’UE sur les échanges commerciaux avec les pays en voie de développement : impa," Working Papers hal-01589957, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE model; Dynamic Baseline; Growth model; Energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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