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MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy


  • Lionel Fontagné
  • Jean Fouré
  • Maria Priscila Ramos


Thinking of how the relative sizes of countries and how the geography of world production and trade will be affected in the long run must be based on sound economic reasoning about the determinants of long term growth. It must also be embedded in a general equilibrium framework that takes account of the interactions among markets and sectors, as well as between countries. This paper takes stock of a three phase research project. The first step consists of deriving and estimating a three-factor (labour, capital, energy) macroeconomic growth model for a large set of individual countries, which fits two forms of technological progress (standard TFP and energy efficiency). The second step consists of recovering the sectoral detail with an energy-oriented Computable General Equilibrium model of the world economy calibrated to fit these projections. In a third step we confront the assumptions for our baseline to alternative scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-39

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chappuis, Thomas & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Projections for World CGE Model Baselines," GTAP Research Memoranda 3728, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 617-654, October.
    3. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Duval, Romain & de la Maisonneuve, Christine, 2010. "Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 64-80, January.
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    7. van der Werf, Edwin, 2008. "Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2964-2979, November.
    8. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    9. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    10. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomos F., 2009. "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1648-1661, September.
    11. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-1238, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:1:p:36-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Alexander Keck, 2017. "Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 36-55, January.
    3. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-01190840 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Anne-Célia Disdier & Charlotte Emlinger & Jean Fouré, 2015. "Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-01190840, HAL.
    5. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01299851 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Houssein Guimbard & Maëlan Le Goff, 2014. "Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers 2014-28, CEPII research center.
    7. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2011. "Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA," Working Papers 2011-23, CEPII research center.
    8. Disdier, Anne‐Célia & Emlinger, Charlotte & Fouré, Jean, 2016. "Interdependencies between Atlantic and Pacific agreements: Evidence from agri-food sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 241-253.
    9. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2017. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the 21st Century: Has it Done the Business?," Working Papers 2017-11, CEPII research center.
    10. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2016. "Competing Liberalizations: Tariffs and Trade in the 21st Century," CESifo Working Paper Series 5962, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Fouré, Jean & Guimbard, Houssein & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2016. "Border carbon adjustment and trade retaliation: What would be the cost for the European Union?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 349-362.
    14. Jean Chateau & Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Åsa Johansson & Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 67-100.
    15. Parisa Aghajanzadeh-Darzi & Cecilia Bellora & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Anaïs Goburdhun, 2015. "Assessing EU trade preferences for developing countries' development and food security
      [Évaluation des préférences de l’UE sur les échanges commerciaux avec les pays en voie de développement : impa
      ," Working Papers hal-01589957, HAL.
    16. Jean Fouré & Houssein Guimbard & Stéphanie Monjon, 2013. "Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union?," Working Papers 2013-34, CEPII research center.
    17. Bernd Meyer & Gerd Ahlert, 2016. "Imperfect Markets and the Properties of Macro-Economic-Environmental Models as Tools for Policy Evaluation," GWS Discussion Paper Series 16-9, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

    More about this item


    CGE model; Dynamic Baseline; Growth model; Energy;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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