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MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy

  • Lionel Fontagné
  • Jean Fouré
  • Maria Priscila Ramos

Thinking of how the relative sizes of countries and how the geography of world production and trade will be affected in the long run must be based on sound economic reasoning about the determinants of long term growth. It must also be embedded in a general equilibrium framework that takes account of the interactions among markets and sectors, as well as between countries. This paper takes stock of a three phase research project. The first step consists of deriving and estimating a three-factor (labour, capital, energy) macroeconomic growth model for a large set of individual countries, which fits two forms of technological progress (standard TFP and energy efficiency). The second step consists of recovering the sectoral detail with an energy-oriented Computable General Equilibrium model of the world economy calibrated to fit these projections. In a third step we confront the assumptions for our baseline to alternative scenarios.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2013-39.

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Date of creation: Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-39
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  1. Antoine Bouet & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00307910, HAL.
  2. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" hal-00975545, HAL.
  3. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  4. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December.
  5. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Château, 2008. "An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 653, OECD Publishing.
  6. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  7. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomos F., 2009. "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1648-1661, September.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  9. Duval, Romain & de la Maisonneuve, Christine, 2010. "Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 64-80, January.
  10. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  11. Chappuis, Thomas & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Projections for World CGE Model Baselines," GTAP Research Memoranda 3728, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  12. repec:inr:wpaper:156783 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. van der Werf, Edwin, 2008. "Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2964-2979, November.
  14. Fare, Rolf & Grosskopf, Shawna & Norris, Mary, 1997. "Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1040-43, December.
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