IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eps/cepswp/9142.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Gros, Daniel
  • Alcidi, Cinzia

Abstract

This groundbreaking study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope. Our goal in pursuing this research is not to make precise predictions about growth rates or the size of individual economies, but to provide a guide for EU policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe. In an attempt to respond to this need, this study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope, which often go beyond the purely economic dimension. Our ultimate goal is to provide a guide for policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:9142
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ceps.eu/system/files/Global%20Economy%20in%202030_small.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    3. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    4. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    5. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-361, May.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: an Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728.
    7. Giovanna Vallanti & Angela Cipollone & Eleonora Patacchini, 2012. "Women Labor Market Performance in Europe: Trends and Shaping Factors," EcoMod2012 4353, EcoMod.
    8. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "Modelling the world economy at the 2050 horizon," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(4), pages 617-654, October.
    9. Fontagné, Lionel & Orefice, Gianluca & Piermartini, Roberta & Rocha, Nadia, 2015. "Product standards and margins of trade: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 29-44.
    10. Antoine Bouët & Jean‐Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1329-1354, September.
    11. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    12. Richard Baldwin & Javier Lopez-Gonzalez, 2015. "Supply-chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(11), pages 1682-1721, November.
    13. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
    14. Dora L. Costa, 2000. "From Mill Town to Board Room: The Rise of Women's Paid Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 101-122, Fall.
    15. Benn Steil, 2013. "The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9925.
    16. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
    17. Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
    18. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
    19. Ali Mansoor & Bryce Quillin, 2007. "Migration and Remittances : Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6920, June.
    20. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1991. "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 43-61.
    21. Pietro Alessandrini & Michele Fratianni, 2009. "International Monies, Special Drawing Rights, and Supernational Money," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 26, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    22. Jacopo Carmassi & Daniel Gros & Stefano Micossi, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Cures," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47, pages 977-996, November.
    23. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1998. "Market Structure and the Growth Process," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 276-305, January.
    24. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    25. Piotr Lewandowski & Iga Magda & Jan Baran & Olena Fedyuk & Attila Bartha, 2013. "Gender Dimensions of the Labour Markets over the Past Two Decades," IBS Working Papers 1/2013, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    26. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    27. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Howitt, Peter, 2014. "What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory?," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 515-563, Elsevier.
    28. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    29. Philippe Aghion & Christopher Harris & Peter Howitt & John Vickers, 2001. "Competition, Imitation and Growth with Step-by-Step Innovation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 467-492.
    30. Antoine Bouët & Simon Mevel & David Orden, 2007. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1253-1280, August.
    31. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
    32. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    33. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2006. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 37-74, March.
    34. Theodore H. Moran & Edward M. Graham & Magnus Blomstrom, 2005. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3810, May.
    35. World Bank, 2007. "Global Economic Prospects 2007 : Managing the Next Wave of Globalization," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7157, June.
    36. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," IIDE Discussion Papers 20130401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    37. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2012. "Casino Capitalism: How the Financial Crisis Came About and What Needs to be Done Now," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199659883.
    38. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    39. Charles R. Hulten, 2001. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    41. Daniel Gros & Cinzia Alcidi, 2009. "Why Europe will suffer more," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 44(4), pages 255-260, July.
    42. Segerstrom, Paul S, 2000. "The Long-Run Growth Effects of R&D Subsidies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 277-305, September.
    43. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June.
    44. Carmen Fillat Castejón & Joseph F. Francois & Julia Woerz, 2008. "Trade through FDI: investing in services," Documentos de Trabajo dt2008-06, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    45. Smith, Alasdair & Venables, Anthony J., 1988. "Completing the internal market in the European Community : Some industry simulations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1501-1525, September.
    46. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
    47. Antoine Bouët & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
    48. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    49. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Quantifying The Uruguay Round," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 16, pages 363-388, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    50. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, May.
    51. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    52. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 1998. "Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 111-130, June.
    53. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    54. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    55. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Yvan Decreux & Jean-Louis Guerin & Sebastien Jean, 2002. "MIRAGE, un modele d'equilibre general calculable pour l'evaluation des politiques commerciales," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 89-90, pages 109-153.
    56. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeon, Heesang, 2015. "Knowledge and Contemporary Capitalism in Light of Marx's Value Theory," Thesis Commons g5njk, Center for Open Science.
    2. Christos Pargianas, 2016. "Endogenous Economic Institutions and Persistent Income Differences among High Income Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 139-159, February.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Howitt, Peter, 2014. "What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory?," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 515-563, Elsevier.
    4. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.
    5. Sumbal Fatima & Bateer Chen & Muhammad Ramzan & Qamar Abbas, 2020. "The Nexus Between Trade Openness and GDP Growth: Analyzing the Role of Human Capital Accumulation," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    6. Keiichi Kishi, 2015. "Dynamic analysis of wage inequality and creative destruction," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 1-23, May.
    7. Amable, Bruno & Ledezma, Ivan & Robin, Stéphane, 2016. "Product market regulation, innovation, and productivity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 2087-2104.
    8. Szalavetz, Andrea, 2011. "Innovációvezérelt növekedés? [Innovation-driven growth?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 460-476.
    9. Johanna Vogel, 2015. "The two faces of R&D and human capital: Evidence from Western European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(3), pages 525-551, August.
    10. Zoltan J. Acs & Pontus Braunerhjelm & Charlie Karlsson, 2017. "Philippe Aghion: recipient of the 2016 Global Award for Entrepreneurship Research," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-8, January.
    11. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M., 2007. "Growth, Development, and Technological Change," IZA Discussion Papers 2558, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Schreiner, Lena & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "Investing in power grid infrastructure as a flexibility option: A DSGE assessment for Germany," FCN Working Papers 11/2019, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised 01 Apr 2020.
    13. Alberto Bucci, 2003. "R&D, imperfect competition and growth with human capital accumulation," Departmental Working Papers 2003-11, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    14. Volker Grossmann & Thomas Steger, 2007. "Growth, Development, and Technological Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 1913, CESifo.
    15. Renaud Bourlès & Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez & Jacques Mairesse & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 2013. "Do Product Market Regulations In Upstream Sectors Curb Productivity Growth? Panel Data Evidence For OECD Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1750-1768, December.
    16. Benjamin Montmartin & Nadine Massard, 2015. "Is Financial Support For Private R&D Always Justified? A Discussion Based On The Literature On Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 479-505, July.
    17. Elie Gray & André Grimaud, 2016. "The Lindahl equilibrium in Schumpeterian growth models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 101-142, March.
    18. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    19. Alessandro D. SCOPELLITI, 2010. "Competition And Economic Growth: A Critical Survey Of The Theoretical Literature," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 70-93.
    20. Alberto Bucci, 2014. "Population, competition, innovation, and economic growth with and without human capital investment," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(1), pages 61-84, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:9142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Margarita Minkova). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepssbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.