The welfare effect of the new wave of protectionism: The case of Argentina
This paper studies the welfare impact of alternative scenarios of trade protectionism and liberalization in Argentina. The impact of the different trade policies is assessed in two different ways. We first use the multi-sectoral and multi-regional computable general equilibrium MIRAGE model to assess the effects of trade policy on GDP, exports, imports, terms of trade, real wages, and welfare. The second approach is to follow the trade and poverty literature and use the price and factor remuneration changes from each simulation to feed them into household survey data and assess the welfare effect on Argentine households. The simulations show that an increase in protectionism in a unilateral way has only short term benefits while the long run effects are negative. On the other hand liberalization scenarios tend to have short term negative effects.
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