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Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA

  • Yvan Decreux
  • Lionel Fontagné

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy (MIRAGE), we simulate the impacts of the most recent drafts circulated in the multilateral trade negotiations arena, augmented by a modest outcome of the negotiation in services. The liberalisation of tariffs is implemented at the product level in order to take into account exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non-linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies are taken into account. We integrate dynamic gains up to 2025. We observe a $US70bn world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) long run gain when agriculture and industry are liberalised, a $US85bn gain when a 3% reduction in protection for services is added to certain services sectors. Calculation of the gains associated with trade facilitation suggests roughly a doubling of the expected gains ($US152bn); port efficiency adds another $US35bn. In total, the $US187bn gains identified here in the scenario combining liberalisation in trade in goods and services with trade facilitation and port efficiency, would accumulate to world GDP every year in the medium term, compared to the situation without agreement. Recent proposals for sectoral initiatives would add a further $US15bn on top of these gains.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2011-23.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-23
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  1. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2008. "The potential cost of a failed Doha Round:," Issue briefs 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Antoine Bou�t & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008. "Assessing Applied Protection across the World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 850-863, November.
  3. Decreux, Yvan & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2007. "How does tariff-rate quota modelling affect CGE results? An application for MIRAGE," Working Papers 7206, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  4. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.
  5. Christophe Gouel & Cristina Mitaritonna & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2010. "The Art of Exceptions: Sensitive Products in the Doha Negotiations," Working Papers 2010-20, CEPII research center.
  6. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  7. repec:inr:wpaper:26327 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013. "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers 2013-39, CEPII research center.
  9. Lionel Fontagné & Amélie Guillin & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2011. "Estimations of Tariff Equivalents for the Services Sectors," Working Papers 2011-24, CEPII research center.
  10. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2010. "Eight years of Doha trade talks," IFPRI discussion papers 997, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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