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What next for the DDA? Quantifying the role of negotiation modalities

Author

Listed:
  • Yvan Decreux

    (ITC (UNCTAD-WTO) - International Trade Center - WTO - UNCTAD)

  • Lionel Fontagné

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract

Negotiators have reached a deal on a limited series of issues WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali (3–6 December 2013), one of these being trade facilitation. Based on a quantitative assessment taking into account the detail of the last proposals circulated, we argue however that due to the design of the negotiation, achievements of the DDA will eventually be limited. This is due to a lack of ambition making it difficult for negotiat ors to compensate their own concessions. Such feebleness is induced by the way negotiations were organized – in separate groups, without much consideration for, or understanding of, how the different elements added up to more than the sum of the parts. Our quantification of these issues is performed with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, while liberalisation of tariffs is taken into account at the product level in order to address exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non-linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies in agriculture are taken into account, as well as trade facilitation. Our conclusion is that negotiators will have to re-bundle the bits of the negotiation and shift efforts towards the neglected issue of services to make progress towards the objectives agreed on in Bali.

Suggested Citation

  • Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "What next for the DDA? Quantifying the role of negotiation modalities," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01299828, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01299828
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01299828
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoekman, Bernard & Martin, Will & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2010. "Conclude Doha: it matters!," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 505-530, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoekman, Bernard, 2014. "The Bali Trade Facilitation Agreement and Rulemaking in the WTO: Milestone, Mistake or Mirage?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Doha Development Round; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Trade facilitation;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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