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Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shock

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  • Chad P. Bown
  • Meredith A. Crowley

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the trade policies of thirteen major emerging economies over 1989-2010; by 2010, these WTO member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world GDP. We examine determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import protection imposed at the extensive margin. New import restrictions on products arise through the temporary trade barriers (TTBs) – antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties – that have become some of the most important time-varying trade policies in use. Our approach explicitly addresses changes to the institutional environment facing these emerging economies as they joined the WTO and promised to restrain other trade policies by keeping applied import tariffs below specified maximum levels. After controlling for this phenomenon, bilateral real exchange rate fluctuations, and potential differences across exchange rate regimes, we find general evidence of a counter-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic shocks and new import protection through TTBs. Furthermore, for the subset of major G20 emerging economies, the trade policy responsiveness coinciding with the onset of the WTO in 1995 through 2008 suggests a significant change relative to the pre-WTO period; i.e., import protection through these policy instruments became more counter-cyclical over time. Finally, we document evidence on potential changes to the channels through which macroeconomic shocks affect emerging economy new import protection coinciding with the timing of the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad P. Bown & Meredith A. Crowley, 2013. "Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shock," Working Paper Series WP-2012-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2012-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yi Liu & Jun Deng, 2016. "Antidumping under International Fragmentation: Evidence from China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 306-316, February.
    2. Chad P. Bown & Patricia Tovar, 2016. "Preferential Liberalization, Antidumping, and Safeguards: Stumbling Block Evidence from MERCOSUR," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 262-294, November.
    3. Tobias D. Ketterer, 2016. "EU Anti-dumping and Tariff Cuts: Trade Policy Substitution?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 576-596, May.
    4. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:4:a:65699 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
    6. Chad P. Bown, 2014. "Trade Policy Flexibilities and Turkey: Tariffs, Anti-dumping, Safeguards and WTO Dispute Settlement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 193-218, February.
    7. repec:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:43:p:4083-4097 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bown, Chad P., 2012. "Emerging economies and the emergence of south-south protectionism," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6162, The World Bank.
    9. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A, 2016. "The Empirical Landscape of Trade Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11216, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb, 2016. "Growth, Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1050-1080, November.
    11. Lake, James & Linask, Maia K., 2016. "Could tariffs be pro-cyclical?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 124-146.
    12. MUKUNOKI Hiroshi, 2017. "Does Trade Liberalization Promote Antidumping Protection? A theoretical analysis," Discussion papers 17031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Bown, Chad P., 2014. "Trade policy instruments over time," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6757, The World Bank.
    14. James C. Hartigan, 2016. "In or Out? Standards, Discretion, Compliance and the WTO," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 738-754, June.

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    Keywords

    Emerging markets ; Trade;

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