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Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO

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  • Valeria Groppo
  • Roberta Piermartini

Abstract

This paper discusses the impact of WTO commitments on changes in MFN applied tariffs, isolating pure trade policy changes from any other change in the level of protection due to market conditions by focusing on ad valorem tariffs. We measure trade policy uncertainty as the probability of a tariff increase to account for the fact that it is only the prospect of a bad shock that affects an exporter’s decision of whether to enter a certain market.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeria Groppo & Roberta Piermartini, 2015. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO," Working Papers id:6419, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:6419
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Csilla, Lakatos & Lars, Nilsson, 2015. "The EU-Korea free trade agreement: Anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2015-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    2. Csilla Lakatos & Lars Nilsson, 2017. "The EU-Korea FTA: anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 179-198, February.
    3. Emanuel Ornelas, 2016. "Special and Differential Treatment for Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 5823, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Osnago, Alberto & Piermartini, Roberta & Rocha, Nadia, 2015. "Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    5. Lake, James & Linask, Maia K., 2016. "Could tariffs be pro-cyclical?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 124-146.
    6. Nuno Limão, 2016. "Preferential Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 22138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WTO; tariff policy; trade agreements; price volatility; shock; policies; market; gains from trade agreements; commitments; tariffs formation; binding overhang.;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

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