IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id6419.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO

Author

Listed:
  • Valeria Groppo
  • Roberta Piermartini

Abstract

This paper discusses the impact of WTO commitments on changes in MFN applied tariffs, isolating pure trade policy changes from any other change in the level of protection due to market conditions by focusing on ad valorem tariffs. We measure trade policy uncertainty as the probability of a tariff increase to account for the fact that it is only the prospect of a bad shock that affects an exporter’s decision of whether to enter a certain market.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeria Groppo & Roberta Piermartini, 2015. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO," Working Papers id:6419, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:6419
    Note: Institutional Papers
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esocialsciences.org/Download/repecDownload.aspx?fname=A2015122132018_39.pdf&fcategory=Articles&AId=6419&fref=repec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chad P. Bown & Meredith A. Crowley, 2013. "Self-Enforcing Trade Agreements: Evidence from Time-Varying Trade Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 1071-1090, April.
    2. Emanuel Ornelas, 2007. "Exchanging market access at the outsiders' expense: the case of customs unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 207-224, February.
    3. Broda, Christian & Greenfield, Joshua & Weinstein, David E., 2017. "From groundnuts to globalization: A structural estimate of trade and growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 759-783.
    4. Rose, Andrew K., 2004. "Do WTO members have more liberal trade policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 209-235, July.
    5. Eric W. Bond & Raymond G. Riezman & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2013. "A strategic and welfare theoretic analysis of free trade areas," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 8, pages 101-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Freund, Caroline, 2000. "Multilateralism and the endogenous formation of preferential trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 359-376, December.
    7. Christian Broda & Nuno Limão & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "Optimal Tariffs and Market Power: The Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 2, pages 13-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Giovanni Maggi & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 1998. "The Value of Trade Agreements in the Presence of Political Pressures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 574-601, June.
    9. Nuno Limão & Giovanni Maggi, 2018. "Uncertainty and Trade Agreements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 3, pages 47-88, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Davide Sala & Philipp J. H. Schröder & Erdal Yalcin, 2010. "Market Access Through Bound Tariffs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(3), pages 272-289, July.
    11. Liliana Foletti & Marco Fugazza & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2011. "Smoke in the (Tariff) Water," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 248-264, February.
    12. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    13. Beshkar, Mostafa & Bond, Eric W. & Rho, Youngwoo, 2015. "Tariff binding and overhang: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 1-13.
    14. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," NBER Working Papers 19376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Andrew Rose, 2005. "Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 7-22, January.
    16. Bagwell, Kyle & Staiger, Robert W, 1990. "A Theory of Managed Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 779-795, September.
    17. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Meredith A. Crowley, 2007. "Cyclical dumping and U.S. antidumping protection: 1980-2001," Working Paper Series WP-07-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Andrew K. Rose, 2013. "The march of an economic idea? Protectionism isn't counter-cyclic (anymore) [Is there a consensus among economists in the 1990s?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(76), pages 569-612.
    20. Henrik Horn & Giovanni Maggi & Robert W. Staiger, 2010. "Trade Agreements as Endogenously Incomplete Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 394-419, March.
    21. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    22. J.M. Finger & H. Keith Hall & Douglas R. Nelson, 2002. "The Political Economy of Administered Protection," Chapters, in: Institutions and Trade Policy, chapter 8, pages 81-95, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Fugazza, Marco & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Measuring preferential market access," MPRA Paper 38565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Cadot, Olivier & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Tschopp, Jeanne, 2009. "Do Trade Agreements Reduce the Volatility of Agricultural Distortions?," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 50303, World Bank.
    25. Antoni Estevadeordal & Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2008. "Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization Toward Nonmembers?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1531-1575.
    26. Alessandro Nicita, 2011. "Measuring The Relative Strength Of Preferential Market Access," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 47, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    27. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2008. "International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 621-652, October.
    28. Bagwell Kyle & Staiger Robert W., 2003. "Protection and the Business Cycle," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-45, September.
    29. Michael M. Knetter & Thomas J. Prusa, 2021. "Macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings: evidence from four countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Thomas J Prusa (ed.), Economic Effects of Antidumping, chapter 8, pages 153-169, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    31. Robert W. Staiger & Kyle Bagwell, 1999. "An Economic Theory of GATT," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 215-248, March.
    32. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2011. "What Do Trade Negotiators Negotiate About? Empirical Evidence from the World Trade Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1238-1273, June.
    33. repec:bla:scotjp:v:57:y:2010:i:s1:p:272-289 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Bohara, Alok K & Kaempfer, William H, 1991. "A Test of Tariff Endogeneity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 952-960, September.
    35. Rodney D. Ludema & Anna Maria Mayda, 2013. "Do terms-of-trade effects matter for trade agreements? Theory and evidence from WTO Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1837-1893.
    36. Bond, Eric W. & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1996. "The size of trading blocs Market power and world welfare effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 411-437, May.
    37. Cassing, James & McKeown, Timothy J. & Ochs, Jack, 1986. "The Political Economy of the Tariff Cycle," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(3), pages 843-862, September.
    38. Enzo Grilli, 1988. "Macro-economic Determinants of Trade Protection," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 313-326, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maggi, Giovanni, 2014. "International Trade Agreements," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 317-390, Elsevier.
    2. Lake, James & Linask, Maia K., 2016. "Could tariffs be pro-cyclical?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 124-146.
    3. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
    4. James Lake & Maia K. Linask, 2015. "Domestic political competition and binding overhang in developing countries," Departmental Working Papers 1503, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    5. Jakubik, Adam & Piermartini, Roberta, 2023. "How WTO commitments tame uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Nuno Limão, 2016. "Preferential Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 22138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2014. "Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 261-273.
    8. Kuenzel, David J., 2020. "WTO tariff commitments and temporary protection: Complements or substitutes?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Tabakis, Chrysostomos & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2019. "Preferential trade agreements and antidumping protection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Staiger, Robert & Bagwell, Kyle & Bown, Chad, 2015. "Is the WTO Passé?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Nuno Limão & Giovanni Maggi, 2018. "Uncertainty and Trade Agreements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 3, pages 47-88, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. James Lake & Maia Linask, 2016. "Domestic political competition and pro-cyclical import protection," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 564-591, August.
    13. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    14. Bown, Chad, 2015. "What's Left for the WTO?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11003, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Bown,Chad P. & Crowley,Meredith A & Bown,Chad P. & Crowley,Meredith A, 2016. "The empirical landscape of trade policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7620, The World Bank.
    16. Beshkar, Mostafa & Bond, Eric W. & Rho, Youngwoo, 2015. "Tariff binding and overhang: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 1-13.
    17. Beshkar, Mostafa & Lee, Ryan, 2022. "How does import market power matter for trade agreements?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Carballo, Jeronimo & Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno, 2022. "Economic and policy uncertainty: Aggregate export dynamics and the value of agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Chad P. Bown & Patricia Tovar, 2016. "Preferential Liberalization, Antidumping, and Safeguards: Stumbling Block Evidence from MERCOSUR," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 262-294, November.
    20. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2013. "Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 50-64.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WTO; tariff policy; trade agreements; price volatility; shock; policies; market; gains from trade agreements; commitments; tariffs formation; binding overhang.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:6419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Padma Prakash (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.esocialsciences.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.