Protectionist Responses to the Crisis: Global Trends and Implications
In this paper we take a systematic look at recent trends in global protectionism and at the potential implications of a protectionist backlash for economic growth, using results from the recent economic literature and new model simulations. We find that there has so far been a moderate increase in actual protectionist measures to restrict trade through tariff and non-tariff barriers. At the same time, evidence from surveys shows that public pressure for more economic protection has been mounting since the mid-2000s, and has possibly intensified since the start of the financial crisis. However, no World Trade Organization (WTO) member has retreated into widespread trade restrictions or protectionism to date. Our model-based simulations suggest that the impairment of the global flow of trade would hamper the recovery from the crisis, as well as the long-term growth of the global economy. At the same time, it is unlikely that protectionism would help to correct existing current account imbalances. Moreover, the countries implementing protectionist measures should expect a deterioration of their international competitiveness, which would further affect the potential for longer-term real GDP growth.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS|
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F50-F72, 02.
- Roland Beck & Michael Fidora, 2008.
"The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets,"
Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy,
Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(6), pages 349-358, November.
- Roland Beck & Michael Fidora, 2008. "The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets," Occasional Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
- Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0683, European Central Bank.
- K. H. O'Rourke & R. Sinnott, 2001.
"The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence,"
CEG Working Papers
20016, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- K. H. O'Rourke & R. Sinnott, 2001. "The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence," Trinity Economics Papers 200110, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008.
"Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise,"
Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series
1, Bank of Lithuania.
- Karim Barhoumi & Szilard Benk & Riccardo Cristadoro & Ard Den Reijer & Audrone Jakaitiene & Piotr Jelonek & António Rua & Gerhard Rünstler & Karsten Ruth & Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets - a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Occasional Paper Series 84, European Central Bank.
- Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
- K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research 133, National Bank of Belgium.
- Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
- Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2008.
"Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2008,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
- Robert Kaufmann & Pavlos Karadeloglou & Filippo di Mauro, 2008. "Will oil prices decline over the long run?," Occasional Paper Series 98, European Central Bank.
- Markus Baltzer & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU member states," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
- Magdalena Morgese Borys & Éva Katalin Polgár & Andrei Zlate, 2008. "Real convergence and the determinants of growth in EU candidate and potential candidate countries - a panel data approach," Occasional Paper Series 86, European Central Bank.
- Antoine Bouet & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2008.
"Assessing Applied Protection across the World,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Philippe Moutot & Alexander Jung & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "The working of the eurosystem - monetary policy preparations and decision-making – selected issues," Occasional Paper Series 79, European Central Bank.
- Zbigniew Polanski & Adalbert Winkler, 2008. "Russia, EU enlargement and the euro," Occasional Paper Series 93, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.