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The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets

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  • Roland Beck
  • Michael Fidora

Abstract

wealth funds (SWFs) on global financial markets. It presents back-of-the-envelope calculations which simulate the potential impact of a transfer of traditional foreign exchange reserves to SWFs on global capital flows. If SWFs behave as CAPM-type investors and thus allocate foreign assets according to market capitalisation rather than liquidity considerations, official portfolios reduce their "bias" towards the major reserve currencies. As a result, more capital flows "downhill" from rich to less wealthy economies, in line with standard neoclassical predictions. More specifically, it is found that under the assumption of SWFs investing according to market capitalisation weights, the euro area and the United States could be subject to net capital outflows while Japan and the emerging markets would attract net capital inflows. It is also shown that these findings are sensitive to alternative assumptions for the portfolio objectives of SWFs. Finally, the paper discusses whether a change in net capital flows triggered by SWFs could have an impact on stock prices and bond yields. Based on an event study approach, no evidence can be found for a stock price impact of non-commercially motivated stock sales by Norway's Government Pension Fund. JEL Classification: F30, F40, G15
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Suggested Citation

  • Roland Beck & Michael Fidora, 2008. "The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(6), pages 349-358, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:intere:v:43:y:2008:i:6:p:349-358
    DOI: 10.1007/s10272-008-0268-5
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    as
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    22. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Vidalis, Nick & Andersson, Malin & Gieseck, Arne, 2008. "Wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries: some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 90, European Central Bank.
    23. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & von Landesberger, Julian & Lojschová, Adriana & Moutot, Philippe, 2007. "The role of other financial intermediaries in monetary and credit developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    24. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
    25. Nicola Giammarioli & Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness - Theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
    26. Lorenzo Cappiello & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2008. "The sustainability of China's exchange rate policy and capital account liberalisation," Occasional Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
    27. Roland Beck & Michael Fidora, 2008. "The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(6), pages 349-358, November.
    28. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Ferrucci, Gianluigi, 2008. "The sustainability of China's exchange rate policy and capital account liberalisation," Occasional Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
    29. Olga Arratibel & Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz & Reiner Martin & Marcin Przybyla & Lucasz Rawdanowicz & Roberta Serafini & Tina Zumer, 2007. "Determinants of growth in the central and eastern European EU member states - a production function approach," Occasional Paper Series 61, European Central Bank.
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    31. Winkler, Adalbert & Geis, André & Böwer, Uwe, 2007. "Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa," Occasional Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
    32. Beck, Roland & Kamps, Annette & Mileva, Elitza, 2007. "Long-term growth prospects for the Russian economy," Occasional Paper Series 58, European Central Bank.
    33. Martin Skala & Christian Thimann & Regine Wölfinger, 2007. "The search for Columbus’ egg - finding a new formula to determine quotas at the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 70, European Central Bank.
    34. Michael Sturm & François Gurtner, 2007. "Fiscal policy in Mediterranean countries – developments, structures and implications for monetary policy," Occasional Paper Series 69, European Central Bank.
    35. Giammarioli, Nicola & Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness: theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
    36. Sturm, Michael & Gurtner, François, 2007. "Fiscal policy in Mediterranean countries: developments, structures and implications for monetary policy," Occasional Paper Series 69, European Central Bank.
    37. Philipp Hartmann & Florian Heider & Elias Papaioannou & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "The role of financial markets and innovation in productivity and growth in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 72, European Central Bank.
    38. Markus Baltzer & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU member states," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
    39. De Santis, Roberto A. & Cappiello, Lorenzo & Baltzer, Markus & Manganelli, Simone, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU Member States," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
    40. François Coppens & Fernando Gonzáles & Gerhard Winkler, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Working Paper Research 118, National Bank of Belgium.
    41. Schmiedel, Heiko, 2007. "The economic impact of the Single Euro Payments Area," Occasional Paper Series 71, European Central Bank.
    42. Philippe Moutot & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Adriana Lojschová & Julian von Landesberger, 2007. "The role of other financial intermediaries in monetary and credit developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    43. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Bowles, Carlos & Friz, Roberta & Meyler, Aidan & Rautanen, Tuomas, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) - A review after eight years' experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    44. Van Rixtel, Adrian & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a Central Bank perspective," Occasional Paper Series 62, European Central Bank.
    45. Russo, Daniela & Rosati, Simonetta & Chan, Diana & Fontan, Florence, 2007. "The securities custody industry," Occasional Paper Series 68, European Central Bank.
    46. Herrmann, Sabine & Polgár, Éva Katalin, 2007. "Understanding price developments and consumer price indices in south-eastern Europe," Occasional Paper Series 57, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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