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To What Extent Are Tariffs Offset by Exchange Rates?

Author

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  • Olivier Jeanne

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In theory, tariffs are partially offset by a currency appreciation in the tariff imposing country or by a depreciation in the country on which the tariff is imposed. Based on a calibrated model, this paper finds that US tariffs imposed in 2018 should not have had a large impact on the dollar but may have significantly depreciated the renminbi. This prediction is consistent with a high-frequency event analysis looking at the impact of tariff-related news on the dollar and the renminbi. Tariff-related news explains about one-third of the renminbi depreciation observed in 2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Jeanne, 2020. "To What Extent Are Tariffs Offset by Exchange Rates?," Working Paper Series WP20-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp20-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2024. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Paul Bergin & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2025. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Stabilization of Tariff Shocks," NBER Working Papers 33845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Exchange rate offset to US trade policy: The pricing response of Chinese exporters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    4. Liu, Zhenya & You, Rongyu & Zhan, Yaosong, 2025. "Modeling GDP with a continuous-time finance approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Zolfaghari, Mehdi, 2023. "How does US tariff policy affect the relationship among crude oil, the US dollar and metal markets?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    6. de Boer, Jantke & Eichler, Stefan & Rövekamp, Ingmar, 2024. "Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2024. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1185-1211, September.
    9. Shekhar Hari Kumar & Vimal Balasubramaniam & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2020. "Who cares about the Renminbi?," 2020 Papers pha1373, Job Market Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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