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Exporters and Shocks

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  • Doireann Fitzgerald
  • Stephanie Haller

Abstract

We use micro data for Ireland to estimate how export participation and the export revenue of incumbent exporters respond to tariffs and real exchange rates. Both participation and revenue, but especially revenue, are more responsive to tariffs than to real exchange rates. Our estimates translate into an elasticity of aggregate exports with respect to tariffs of between -3.8 and -5.4, and with respect to real exchange rates of between 0.45 and 0.6, consistent with estimates in the literature based on aggregate data. We argue that forward-looking investment in customer base combined with the fact that tariffs are much more predictable than real exchange rates can explain why export revenue responds so much more to tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Doireann Fitzgerald & Stephanie Haller, 2017. "Exporters and Shocks," Staff Report 549, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:549
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.549
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    File URL: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr549.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2019. "Estimating the trade elasticity over time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Clément Malgouyres & Thierry Mayer, 2018. "Exports and labor costs: evidence from a French policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 429-454, August.
    3. Piveteau, Paul & Smagghue, Gabriel, 2019. "Estimating firm product quality using trade data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 217-232.
    4. Fontagné, Lionel & Martin, Philippe & Orefice, Gianluca, 2018. "The international elasticity puzzle is worse than you think," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 115-129.
    5. Raphael Auer & Ariel Burstein & Katharina Erhardt & Sarah M. Lein, 2019. "Exports and Invoicing: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 533-538, May.
    6. Christoph E. Boehm & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2020. "The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities," NBER Working Papers 27064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fernandes, Ana & Winters, L. Alan, 2018. "The effect of exchange rate shocks on firm-level exports: evidence from the Brexit vote," CEPR Discussion Papers 13253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Crowley, M. A. & Exton, O. & Han, L., 2018. "Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tariffs; Real exchange rates; International elasticity puzzle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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