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The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: evidence for trade diversion?

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  • Cigna, Simone
  • Meinen, Philipp
  • Schulte, Patrick
  • Steinhoff, Nils

Abstract

In this paper we provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the US and China. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period January 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we (1) can confirm previous findings showing a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but (2) do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries. This latter finding holds for product and country subgroups as well as for a variety of robustness checks. JEL Classification: F13, F14, F61

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  • Cigna, Simone & Meinen, Philipp & Schulte, Patrick & Steinhoff, Nils, 2020. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: evidence for trade diversion?," Working Paper Series 2503, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202503
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    Cited by:

    1. HAYAKAWA, Kazunobu & SUDSAWASD, Sasatra, 2024. "Trade Effects of the US–China Trade War on a Third Country: Preventing Trade Rerouting from China," IDE Discussion Papers 916, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Chen, Sijia & Steinbach, Sandro, 2020. "Measuring the Impact of Sunset Reviews on Agricultural and Food Trade," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304566, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Sasatra SUDSAWASD, 2024. "Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand," Working Papers DP-2024-26, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    4. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Ivan, Deseatnicov, 2022. "The impact of the U.S.-China conflict and the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports," IDE Discussion Papers 852, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    5. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions:," Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    7. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2022. "The trade impact of U.S.-China conflict in Southeast Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 873, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    8. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    9. Minkyu Son, 2022. "The global propagation of the US–China trade war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 3121-3157, December.
    10. Christian Grimme, 2020. "Zu den globalen Leistungsbilanzsalden im Jahr 2019," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 49-53, February.
    11. Bo‐Young Choi & Thuy Linh Nguyen, 2023. "Trade diversion effects of the US–China trade war on Vietnam," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 570-588, October.
    12. Korhonen, Iikka & Simola, Heli, 2024. "High-priority battlefield items and television sets: How sanctions reduced Russians' access to goods," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    difference-in-differences; product-level data; tariffs; trade diversion; US imports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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