IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/wp24e06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Restructuring of Global Semiconductor Supply Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Shota Miki

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yoichiro Tamanyu

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the ongoing restructuring of global semiconductor supply chains and investigates how long-term developments in competitiveness between trading countries as well as recent changes in trade policies have affected this restructuring. Using as an example the U.S. tariff hikes against China during 2018-19, which serves as a natural experiment, we first confirm that the stylized facts shown in previous studies--that China's exports to the U.S. decreased significantly, while bystander countries not directly involved in the tariff hikes increased their exports to the U.S.--hold true for semiconductor-related products. Then, to further examine the restructuring of global semiconductor supply chains, we calculate the upstreamness--the distance from final use--of each country's exports in the supply chain, and examine how this has evolved over time and how it can be related to wage differences between those countries. We find that export upstreamness is positively correlated with the wage gap between the trading countries and confirm that this tendency existed well before the recent tariff hikes. These observations imply that the restructuring of global semiconductor supply chains is not led solely by the direct consequences of the tariff hikes, but also by the endogenous response to changes in comparative advantage between the countries involved in the supply chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Shota Miki & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2024. "On the Restructuring of Global Semiconductor Supply Chains," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-6, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2024/data/wp24e06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiang, Lingduo & Lu, Yi & Song, Hong & Zhang, Guofeng, 2023. "Responses of exporters to trade protectionism: Inferences from the US-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    3. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 295-312, June.
    4. Ito, Keiko & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Criscuolo, Chiara & Timmis, Jonathan & Bergeaud, Antonin, 2023. "Global value chains and domestic innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(3).
    5. Aaron Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2103-2127, July.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Davin Chor, 2023. "Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”," NBER Working Papers 31661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. De Backer, Koen & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2014. "Mapping global value chains," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 37176, September.
    8. Bown, Chad P., 2021. "The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 805-843.
    9. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Trinity Economics Papers tep0923, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    10. Chad P. Bown, 2021. "The US–China trade war and phase one agreement," Working Paper Series WP21-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    12. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Naoya Kishi, 2024. "Changes in the Global Economic Landscape and Issues for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Benguria, Felipe & Saffie, Felipe, 2024. "Escaping the trade war: Finance and relational supply chains in the adjustment to trade policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Leona Shao-Zhi Li & Yize Liu & Jia Yuan, 2024. "The effect of the U.S.–China trade war on Chinese corporate innovation: A curse or a blessing?," Working Papers 202418, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    5. Yuko Imura, 2023. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Production Networks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 77-116, December.
    6. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Ivan, Deseatnicov, 2022. "The impact of the U.S.-China conflict and the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports," IDE Discussion Papers 852, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Luo, Changyuan & Wang, Ning, 2025. "U.S.-China trade frictions and supply chain reconstruction: Perspective from indirect links," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2024. "Labour market impacts of the China shock: Why the tide of Globalisation did not lift all boats," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Sébastien Jean & Kevin Lefebvre, 2024. "Beyond Target: Indirect Impacts of Antidumping," CESifo Working Paper Series 11212, CESifo.
    10. Tiago Cavalcanti & Pedro Molina Ogeda & Emanuel Ornelas, 2025. "The US-China trade war creates jobs (elsewhere)," CEP Discussion Papers dp2098, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2022. "The trade impact of U.S.-China conflict in Southeast Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 873, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    12. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.
    13. Felipe Benguria, 2023. "The global impact of the US–China trade war: firm-level evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(4), pages 827-851, November.
    14. Toshiyuki Matsuura, 2025. "Navigating Trade Shocks: The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Japanese Exporters and MNEs," Working Papers e213, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    15. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Tiago Cavalcanti & Pedro Molina Ogeda & Emanuel Ornelas, 2025. "The US-China Trade War Creates Jobs (Elsewhere)," CESifo Working Paper Series 11839, CESifo.
    17. Freund, Caroline & Mattoo, Aaditya & Mulabdic, Alen & Ruta, Michele, 2024. "Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    19. Chor, Davin & Li, Bingjing, 2024. "Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    20. Makioka, Ryo & Zhang, Hongyong, 2024. "The impact of export controls on international trade: Evidence from the Japan–Korea trade dispute in semiconductor industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tariffs; Semiconductors; Global supply chains; Upstreamness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.