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When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Gene M. Grossman
  • Elhanan Helpman
  • Stephen J. Redding

Abstract

We study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply chains form in anticipation of free trade. Then, the home government surprises with an input tariff. This can lead to renegotiation with initial suppliers or search for replacements. Calibrating the model's parameters to match initial import shares and the estimated responses to the US tariffs imposed on China, we find an overall welfare loss of 0.12 percent of GDP, with substantial contributions from changes in input sourcing and search costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Stephen J. Redding, 2024. "When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(4), pages 988-1029, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:114:y:2024:i:4:p:988-1029
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20211519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    2. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 13564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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