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Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices : Evidence from Brexit

Author

Listed:
  • Breinlich, Holger

    (University of Surrey)

  • Leromain, Elsa

    (UC Louvain)

  • Novy, Dennis

    (University of Warwick and CAGE, Department of Economics)

  • Sampson, Thomas

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper studies how the depreciation of sterling following the Brexit referendum affected consumer prices in the United Kingdom. Our identification strategy uses input-output linkages to account for heterogeneity in exposure to import costs across product groups. We show that, after there ferendum, inflation increased by more for product groups with higher import shares in consumer expenditure. This effect is driven by both direct consumption of imported goods and the use of imported inputs in domestic production. Our results are consistent with complete pass-through of import costs to consumer prices and imply an aggregate exchange rate pass-through of 0.29. We estimate the Brexit vote increased consumer prices by 2.9 percent, costing the average household £870 per year. The increase in the cost of living is evenly shared across the income distribution, but differs substantially across regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2019. "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices : Evidence from Brexit," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1234, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Yohannes Ayele & L. Alan Winters, 2020. "How Do Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Trade and Prices? A Survey and Lessons about UK Experience after June 2016," Working Paper Series 1420, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexirt ; Exchange Rate Pass-through ; Import Costs ; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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