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Brexit and uncertainty: insights from the Decision Maker Panel

Author

Listed:
  • Bloom , Nicholas

    (Stanford University)

  • Bunn, Philip

    (Bank of England)

  • Chen, Scarlet

    (Stanford University)

  • Mizen, Paul

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Smietanka, Pawel

    (Bank of England)

  • Thwaites, Greg

    (LSE Centre for Macroeconomics)

  • Young, Garry

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

Abstract

The UK’s decision to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum created substantial uncertainty for UK businesses. The nature of this uncertainty is different from that of a typical uncertainty shock because of its length, breadth and political complexity. Consequently, a new firm-level survey, the Decision Maker Panel (DMP), was created to investigate this, finding three key results. First, Brexit was reported to be one of the top three sources of uncertainty for around 40% of UK businesses in the two years after the vote in June 2016 referendum. This proportion increased further in Autumn 2018. Hence, Brexit provided both a major and persistent uncertainty shock. Second, uncertainty has been higher in industries that are more dependent on trade with the EU and on EU migrant labour. Third, the uncertainties around Brexit have been primarily about the impact on businesses over the longer term rather than shorter term, including uncertainty about the timing of any transition arrangements and around the nature of Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloom , Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Greg & Young, Garry, 2019. "Brexit and uncertainty: insights from the Decision Maker Panel," Bank of England working papers 780, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0780
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business surveys; Brexit; companies; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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