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Downside and Upside Uncertainty Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Forni
  • Luca Gambetti
  • Luca Sala

Abstract

An increase in uncertainty is not contractionary per se. What is contractionary is a widening of the left tail of the GDP growth forecast distribution, the downside uncertainty. On the contrary, an increase of the right tail, the upside uncertainty, is mildly expansionary. The reason why uncertainty shocks have been previously found to be contractionary is because movements in downside uncertainty dominate existing empirical measures of uncertainty. The results are obtained using a new econometric approach that combines quantile regressions and structural vector autoregressions (VARs).

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2025. "Downside and Upside Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 159-189.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:23:y:2025:i:1:p:159-189.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvae024
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Yang & Liao, Wenting & Xiong, Rui, 2025. "The time-varying effects of skewness on the macroeconomy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    2. Korobilis, Dimitris & Schröder, Maximilian, 2025. "Monitoring multi-country macroeconomic risk: A quantile factor-augmented vector autoregressive (QFAVAR) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    3. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2023. "The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation," Working Paper 2023/3, Norges Bank.
    4. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    5. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2025. "Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 530-543, July.
    6. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò & Sala, Luca, 2024. "The effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Carboni, Giacomo & Fonseca, Luís & Fornari, Fabio & Urrutia, Leonardo, 2026. "Structural drivers of growth at risk: insights from a VAR-quantile regression approach," Working Paper Series 3171, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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