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Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro

  • Michael Devereux
  • Charles Engel
  • Cedric Tille

This paper explores the implications of the European single currency within a simple sticky price intertemporal model. The main issue we focus on is how the euro may alter the responsiveness of consumer prices to exchange rate changes. Our central conjectures is that the acceptance of the euro will lead European prices to become more insulated from exchange-rate volatility, much the way U.S. consumer prices already are. We show that this has profound consequences for both the volatility and levels of macroeconomic aggregates in both the U.S. and Europe. We find that European welfare is enhanced, and, more surprisingly U.S. shares in Europe's good fortune. Alternative assumptions about how pricing behavior will change lead to different conclusions, but in all cases we can derive specific implications for expected levels and volatility of macroeconomic varialbes.

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Paper provided by University of Washington, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0034.

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Date of creation: Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:0034
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  1. Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," NBER Working Papers 3579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  4. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alogoskoufis, George & Portes, Richard & Rey, Hélène, 1997. "The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 1741, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C99-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1997. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 6307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 865-90, October.
  11. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
  12. Obstfeld, Maurice & Peri, Giovanni, 1998. "Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy: Lessons for EMU," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233615, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  13. Haskel, Jonathan & Wolf, Holger C, 1999. "Why Does the 'Law of One Price' Fail? A Case Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 2187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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