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The Brexit vote, inflation and U.K living standards

Author

Listed:
  • Breinlich, Holger
  • Leromain, Elsa
  • Novy, Dennis
  • Sampson, Thomas

Abstract

This article studies how voting for Brexit affected living standards in the United Kingdom. Using heterogeneity in exposure to import costs across product groups, we analyze how the depreciation of sterling caused by the referendum affected consumer prices. We find that the Brexit depreciation led to higher inflation in product groups with greater import shares in consumer expenditure. Our results are consistent with complete pass-through of import costs to consumer prices and imply aggregate exchange rate pass-through of 0.29. We estimate the Brexit depreciation increased consumer prices by 2.9%, costing the average household £870 per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2022. "The Brexit vote, inflation and U.K living standards," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111602, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:111602
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/111602/
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    Cited by:

    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Silvana Tenreyro & Ludovica Ambrosino & Jenny Chan, 2024. "Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1225, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2024. "New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Hobijn, Bart & Nechio, Fernanda & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2021. "Using Brexit to identify the nature of price rigidities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "Expecting Brexit," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 495-519, August.
    6. Lapointe, Simon, 2018. "“Love thy neighbour”? The effect of income and language differences on votes for municipal secessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 229-245.
    7. Alex Oktay, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: the Swiss franc appreciation of 2015," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Colantone, Italo & Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2019. "Globalization and mental distress," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 181-207.
    9. Graziano, Alejandro G. & Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno, 2024. "An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Kai Fischer, 2023. "Skilled Labour Migration and Firm Performance: Evidence from English Hospitals and Brexit," CESifo Working Paper Series 10747, CESifo.
    11. Geiger, Martin & Güntner, Jochen, 2024. "The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Fernandes, Ana P. & Winters, L. Alan, 2021. "Exporters and shocks: The impact of the Brexit vote shock on bilateral exports to the UK," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Naser Makarem & Harjinder Singh & Nigar Sultana & Darren Henderson, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and real activities manipulation: evidence from Brexit," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1415-1440, November.
    14. Kudert, Stephan & Hagemann, Tobias & Kahlenberg, Christian, 2017. "Die Internationalisierung der Unternehmerfamilie: Reformvorschläge für die Wegzugsbesteuerung," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 250028.
    15. Leong, Soon Heng & Urga, Giovanni, 2023. "A practical multivariate approach to testing volatility spillover," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    16. Castro-Pires, Henrique & Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2023. "Foreign Nurses and Hospital Quality: Evidence from Brexit," IZA Discussion Papers 16616, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Tao Chen & Peter Levell & Martin O'Connell, 2024. "Cheapflation and the rise of inflation inequality," IFS Working Papers W36, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Simionescu Mihaela & Strielkowski Wadim, 2025. "The Impact of Brexit on Unemployment In The United Kingdom Using Synthetic Control Method," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 35(2), pages 38-64.

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    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

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