IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v61y2023i4d10.1007_s11156-023-01189-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy uncertainty and real activities manipulation: evidence from Brexit

Author

Listed:
  • Naser Makarem

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Harjinder Singh

    (Curtin University)

  • Nigar Sultana

    (Curtin University)

  • Darren Henderson

    (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Abstract

Brexit exposed the UK to substantial policy uncertainty that could affect the performance and behavior of British firms. We examine the impact of Brexit as an exogenous shock to policy uncertainty on real activities manipulation by British firms. Using several measures of real activities manipulation and a difference-in-differences design, we compare the earnings management of firms most adversely affected by Brexit uncertainty (affected firms) to other firms. Our results indicate that the affected firms exhibit higher real activities manipulation after the Brexit vote and we also find that they demonstrate similarly higher accruals management. Our findings suggesting that policy uncertainty induces the costly practice of real activities manipulation are relevant to various stakeholders including policymakers and financial statements users.

Suggested Citation

  • Naser Makarem & Harjinder Singh & Nigar Sultana & Darren Henderson, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and real activities manipulation: evidence from Brexit," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1415-1440, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:61:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-023-01189-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-023-01189-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-023-01189-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-023-01189-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2243-2257 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2009. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(3).
    6. Angus Armstrong & Jonathan Portes, 2016. "Commentary: The Economic Consequences of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 2-6, May.
    7. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Rui Fan & Oleksandr Talavera & Vu Tran, 2020. "Social media, political uncertainty, and stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1137-1153, October.
    9. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    10. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    11. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    12. Hamid Sakaki & Dave Jackson & Surendranath Jory, 2017. "Institutional ownership stability and real earnings management," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 227-244, July.
    13. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    14. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    15. Pappas, Kostas & Walsh, Eamonn & Xu, Alice Liang, 2019. "Real earnings management and loan contract terms," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 373-401.
    16. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Greg Thwaites & Garry Young, 2018. "Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 555-580, December.
    17. Jones, Jj, 1991. "Earnings Management During Import Relief Investigations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 193-228.
    18. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    20. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    21. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    22. Ge, Wenxia & Kim, Jeong-Bon, 2014. "Real earnings management and the cost of new corporate bonds," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 641-647.
    23. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2017. "What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1869-1901, October.
    24. Ghosh, Dipankar & Olsen, Lori, 2009. "Environmental uncertainty and managers' use of discretionary accruals," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 188-205, February.
    25. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    26. Weihong Xu, 2016. "Accruals Management to Avoid Losses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9-10), pages 1095-1120, October.
    27. Xuejun Jin & Ziqing Chen & Xiaolan Yang, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1291-1318, March.
    28. Terry A. Baker & Thomas J. Lopez & Austin L. Reitenga & George W. Ruch, 2019. "The influence of CEO and CFO power on accruals and real earnings management," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 325-345, January.
    29. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 317-331, September.
    30. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "The Brexit Vote, Inflation And U.K. Living Standards," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 63-93, February.
    31. Hassan Espahbodi & Reza Espahbodi & Kose John & Hua Christine Xin, 2022. "Earnings management in the short- and long-term post-regulation periods," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 217-244, January.
    32. Sarra Elleuch Hamza & Nassira Kortas, 2019. "The interaction between accounting and real earnings management using simultaneous equation model with panel data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1195-1227, November.
    33. Vikash Ramiah & Huy N. A. Pham & Imad Moosa, 2017. "The sectoral effects of Brexit on the British economy: early evidence from the reaction of the stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(26), pages 2508-2514, June.
    34. Tao Huang & Fei Wu & Jin Yu & Bohui Zhang, 2015. "Political risk and dividend policy: Evidence from international political crises," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 46(5), pages 574-595, June.
    35. Swati Dhingra & Thomas Sampson, 2016. "Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?," CEP Brexit Analysis Papers 01, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    36. Yung, Kenneth & Root, Andrew, 2019. "Policy uncertainty and earnings management: International evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 255-267.
    37. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    38. Katherine A. Gunny, 2010. "The Relation Between Earnings Management Using Real Activities Manipulation and Future Performance: Evidence from Meeting Earnings Benchmarks," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 855-888, September.
    39. Mahmoud Delshadi & Mahmoud Hosseinniakani & Zabihollah Rezaee, 2023. "Does options trading deter real activities manipulation?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 673-699, August.
    40. Cohen, Daniel A. & Zarowin, Paul, 2010. "Accrual-based and real earnings management activities around seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 2-19, May.
    41. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    42. Li, Valerie, 2019. "The effect of real earnings management on the persistence and informativeness of earnings," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 402-423.
    43. Armstrong, Angus & Portes, Jonathan, 2016. "The economic consequences of leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236, pages 2-6, May.
    44. McNichols, Maureen F., 2000. "Research design issues in earnings management studies," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4-5), pages 313-345.
    45. Audrey Wen-Hsin Hsu & Chih-Hsien Liao, 2023. "Auditor industry specialization and real earnings management," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 607-641, February.
    46. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
    47. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    48. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    49. Hill, Paula & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2019. "Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Paolo Rigamonti & Giulio Greco & Mariarita Pierotti & Alessandro Capocchi, 2024. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and earnings management: evidence from commodity firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1615-1649, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jo, Eun Hye & Lee, Jung Wha, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and managerial short-termism," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Kiosses, Nikolaos & Leventis, Stergios & Subeniotis, Demetres & Tampakoudis, Ioannis, 2025. "The impact of policy uncertainty on shareholder wealth: Evidence from bank M&A," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Frank Obenpong Kwabi & Emmanuel Adegbite & Ernest Ezeani & Chizindu Wonu & Henry Mumbi, 2024. "Political uncertainty and stock market liquidity, size, and transaction cost: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2030-2048, April.
    4. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wu, Jiajia & Guo, Feng, 2022. "Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-596.
    5. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    6. Ahsan Habib & Dinithi Ranasinghe & Julia Yonghua Wu & Pallab Kumar Biswas & Fawad Ahmad, 2022. "Real earnings management: A review of the international literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(4), pages 4279-4344, December.
    7. Cheng, Mengyao, 2022. "Legislative gridlock and stock return dispersion around roll-call votes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    9. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    10. Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2024. "Firm-level political risk and stock price crashes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Zhou, Xi & Xiao, Min & Wu, Huiying & You, Jiaxing, 2024. "Does policy uncertainty travel across borders? Evidence from MNC subsidiary investment decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    13. Ashton De Silva & Huu Nhan Duong & My Nguyen & Yen Ngoc Nguyen, 2023. "Bank risk in uncertain times: Do credit rationing and revenue diversification matter?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(7-8), pages 1240-1273, July.
    14. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    15. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Mario Daniele Amore & Margherita Corina, 2021. "Political elections and corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(9), pages 1775-1796, December.
    17. Paudyal, Krishna & Thapa, Chandra & Koirala, Santosh & Aldhawyan, Sulaiman, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    18. Dang, Man & Nguyen, Ngoc Vu & Mazur, Mieszko & Puwanenthiren, Premkanth & Nguyen, Ngoc Thang, 2021. "Global policy uncertainty and cross-border acquisitions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 224-235.
    19. Chen, Yanyan, 2022. "Does political turnover affect corporate investment? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    20. Christos Floros & Emilios Galariotis & Konstantinos Gkillas & Efstathios Magerakis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2024. "Time-varying firm cash holding and economic policy uncertainty nexus: a quantile regression approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 859-895, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Policy uncertainty; Real activities manipulation; Earnings management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:61:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-023-01189-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.