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Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Silvana Tenreyro
  • Ludovica Ambrosino
  • Jenny Chan

Abstract

How does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To answer these questions, we develop a heterogeneous agent, open-economy model featuring imperfect international risk-sharing. The model captures both the demand and supply side effects of fragmentation. It illustrates how the impact of fragmentation on inflationary pressures and the appropriate policy response depends not only on the direct effect of higher import prices on supply but, crucially, on how aggregate demand adjusts in response to lower real incomes and productivity stemming from fragmentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvana Tenreyro & Ludovica Ambrosino & Jenny Chan, 2024. "Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1225, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2022. "The Brexit vote, inflation and U.K living standards," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111602, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    5. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "The Brexit Vote, Inflation And U.K. Living Standards," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 63-93, February.
    6. Maria‐Grazia Attinasi & Lukas Boeckelmann & Baptiste Meunier, 2025. "The economic costs of supply chain decoupling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 598-627, March.
    7. Jaravel, Xavier Laurent & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US and implications for quantitative trade models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121819, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2022. "The Brexit Vote, Inflation And U.K. Living Standards," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 63-93, February.
    9. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    2. Gnocato, Nicolò & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Stamato, Giovanni, 2025. "Tariffs across the supply chain," Working Paper Series 3081, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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