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The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs

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  • Javier Bianchi
  • Louphou Coulibaly

Abstract

What is the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs? This paper explores this question within an open-economy New Keynesian model, characterizes the macroeconomic effects of tariffs, and shows that the optimal monetary policy response is expansionary, with inflation rising above and beyond the direct effects of tariffs. This result holds regardless of whether tariffs apply to consumption goods or intermediate inputs, whether the shock is temporary or permanent, and whether terms of trade are exogenous or endogenous. When tariffs address other distortions, monetary policy remains expansionary, but the inflationary effects are mitigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2025. "The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs," NBER Working Papers 33560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33560
    Note: EFG IFM ITI ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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