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Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects

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  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús
  • Mineyama, Tomohide
  • Song, Dongho

Abstract

After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We then employ structural vector autoregressions and local projections to assess the causal effects of changes in fragmentation. Our analysis demonstrates that increased fragmentation negatively impacts the global economy, with emerging economies suffering more than advanced ones. Notably, we document a key asymmetry: fragmentation has an immediate negative effect, while the benefits of reduced fragmentation unfold gradually. A sectoral analysis within OECD economies reveals that industries closely linked to global markets ---such as manufacturing, construction, finance, and wholesale and retail trade--- are adversely affected. Finally, we examine the interaction between fragmentation and the economic dynamics of regional economic blocs, highlighting significant differences in the impacts across various geopolitical blocs.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Mineyama, Tomohide & Song, Dongho, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 19184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19184
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    2. Camila Gutierrez & Javier Turen & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2025. "Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises," IMF Working Papers 2025/133, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2024. "FraNK: fragmentation in the NK model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1475, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Christopher Clayton & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Putting Economics Back into Geoeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Khalil, Makram & Osten, David & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Trade dynamics under geopolitical risk," Discussion Papers 03/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Amat Adarov & M. Ayhan Kose & Dana Vorisek, 2025. "Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies," CAMA Working Papers 2025-71, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Norring, Anni, 2024. "The economic effects of geoeconomic fragmentation," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Viktors Stebunovs & Előd Takáts & Judit Temesvary, 2025. "Geopolitics Meets Monetary Policy: Decoding Their Impact on Cross-Border Bank Lending," International Finance Discussion Papers 1403, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Florencia Airaudo & Francois de Soyres & Keith Richards & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2025. "Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 107(12), pages 1-30, September.
    10. Baur, Andreas & Dorn, Florian & Flach, Lisandra & Fuest, Clemens, 2025. "Geoeconomic fragmentation and the role of non-aligned countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    11. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Vasudevan, Vittal, 2025. "Macroeconomic Expectations in a War," IZA Discussion Papers 18017, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Tianyu Fan & Mai Wo & Wei Xiang, 2025. "Geopolitical Barriers to Globalization," Papers 2509.12084, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    13. Samuele Centorrino & Antonia Diakantoni & Alexander Keck & Michele Ruta & Monika Sztajerowska & Yuting Wei, 2025. "Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity," IMF Working Papers 2025/220, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Valentin P. Vishnevsky & Sergey A. Makovetsky & Elena N. Vishnevskaya, 2025. "Effects of Geoeconomic Fragmentation: BRICS vs G7," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 24(1), pages 6-33.
    15. Daniel O. Beltran & Julio L. Ortiz, 2025. "Core Inflation in the Advanced Economies: A Regional Perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 1421, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Gopinath, Gita & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Topalova, Petia, 2025. "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Cathrin Mohr & Christoph Trebesch, 2024. "Geoeconomics," CESifo Working Paper Series 11564, CESifo.
    18. Mohr, Cathrin & Trebesch, Christoph, 2025. "Geoeconomics," Kiel Working Papers 2279, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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