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Optimal Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Misalignments and Incomplete Financial Markets

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  • Senay, Ozge
  • Sutherland, Alan

Abstract

Recent literature on monetary policy shows that, when international financial trade is restricted to a single non-contingent bond, there are significant trade-offs that prevent optimal policy from simultaneously closing all internal and external welfare gaps. Optimal policy therefore deviates from inflation targeting in order to offset real exchange rate misalignments. These simple models are, however, not good representations of modern financial markets. This paper develops a more realistic two-country model of incomplete markets, where there is international trade in nominal bonds denominated in the currencies of the two countries and equity claims on profit streams in the two countries. The analysis shows that the welfare benefits of optimal policy relative to inflation targeting are quantitatively smaller than found in simpler models of financial incompleteness. It is nevertheless found that optimal policy implies quantitatively significant stabilisation of the real exchange rate gap and trade balance gap compared to inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Senay, Ozge & Sutherland, Alan, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Misalignments and Incomplete Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 11198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11198
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Leal, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Incomplete Information: Does the Real Exchange Matter?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 916, Central Bank of Chile.
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    3. Senay, Ozge & Sutherland, Alan, 2016. "Country Portfolios, Collateral Constraints and Optimal Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2020. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    6. Staveley-O’Carroll, James & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2018. "Exchange rate targeting in the presence of foreign debt obligations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 113-134.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-offs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Jalali-Naini, Ahmad Reza & Naderian, Mohammad Amin, 2020. "Financial vulnerability, fiscal procyclicality and inflation targeting in developing commodity exporting economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 84-97.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country portfolios; Financial market structure; Optimal monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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