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Optimal Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Misalignments and Incomplete Financial Markets

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  • Senay, Ozge
  • Sutherland, Alan

Abstract

Recent literature on monetary policy shows that, when international financial trade is restricted to a single non-contingent bond, there are significant trade-offs that prevent optimal policy from simultaneously closing all internal and external welfare gaps. Optimal policy therefore deviates from inflation targeting in order to offset real exchange rate misalignments. These simple models are, however, not good representations of modern financial markets. This paper develops a more realistic two-country model of incomplete markets, where there is international trade in nominal bonds denominated in the currencies of the two countries and equity claims on profit streams in the two countries. The analysis shows that the welfare benefits of optimal policy relative to inflation targeting are quantitatively smaller than found in simpler models of financial incompleteness. It is nevertheless found that optimal policy implies quantitatively significant stabilisation of the real exchange rate gap and trade balance gap compared to inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Senay, Ozge & Sutherland, Alan, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Misalignments and Incomplete Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 11198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
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    6. Michael B. Devereux & Ozge Senay & Alan Sutherland, 2014. "Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 921-959, August.
    7. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    8. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
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    10. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    11. Charles Engel, 2011. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2796-2822, October.
    12. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Country portfolio dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1325-1342, July.
    13. Ozge Senay & Alan Sutherland, 2016. "Country Portfolios, Collateral Constraints and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201604, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, revised 29 Jan 2016.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozge Senay & Alan Sutherland, 2016. "Country Portfolios, Collateral Constraints and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201604, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, revised 29 Jan 2016.
    2. Staveley-O’Carroll, James & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2018. "Exchange rate targeting in the presence of foreign debt obligations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 113-134.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment, capital flows, and optimal monetary policy trade-offs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-off," Discussion Papers 1806, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-offs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Corsetti, G. & Dedola, L. & Leduc, S., 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-offs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1822, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country portfolios; Financial market structure; Optimal monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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