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Deflation probability and the scope for monetary loosening in the United Kingdom

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  • Haberis, Alex

    (Bank of England)

  • Masolo, Riccardo

    (Bank of England)

  • Reinold, Kate

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

In this paper, we use an estimated DSGE model of the UK economy to investigate perceptions of the effectiveness of monetary policy since the onset of the 2007–08 financial crisis in a number of measures of deflation probability — the Survey of Economic Forecasts, financial-market option prices, and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) forecasts. To do so, we use stochastic simulations of the model to generate measures of deflation probability in which the effectiveness of monetary policy to offset deflationary shocks is affected by different assumptions about the existence and level of a lower bound on policy rates. We find that measures of deflation probability are consistent with the perception that the MPC was not particularly constrained in its ability to offset deflation shocks in the post-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Haberis, Alex & Masolo, Riccardo & Reinold, Kate, 2016. "Deflation probability and the scope for monetary loosening in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 627, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0627
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2019. "Thoughts on a review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1fsnu13sl59, Sciences Po.
    2. Alex Haberis & Riccardo M. Masolo & Kate Reinold, 2019. "Deflation Probability and the Scope for Monetary Loosening in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 233-277, March.
    3. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Monetary policy with transitory vs. permanently low growth," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6gjj4t61tm9, Sciences Po.
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2019. "Thoughts on a review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy," Working Papers hal-03403251, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; forecasting and simulation; models and applications; interest rates; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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