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Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle Handley
  • Fariha Kamal
  • Ryan Monarch

Abstract

We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports and exports. Using confidential firm-trade linked data, we show that the decline in imports of tariffed goods was driven by discontinuations of U.S. buyer–foreign supplier relationships, reduced formation of new relationships, and exits by U.S. firms from import markets altogether. However, tariffed products where imports were concentrated in fewer suppliers had a smaller decline in import growth. We then construct measures of export exposure to import tariffs by linking tariffs paid by importing firms to their exported products. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018-2019, with most of the impact occurring in 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2023. "Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War," NBER Working Papers 31602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31602
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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang, 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-Level Evidence from "Liberation Day"," CESifo Working Paper Series 12285, CESifo.
    2. repec:ags:aaea22:343735 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Oh, Saera & Lim, Sunghun, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Agricultural Trade Diversification in Southern Africa: Port-level Evidence from the Russia-UkraineWar," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343735, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Monarch, Ryan & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Longevity and the value of trade relationships," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Freund, Caroline & Mattoo, Aaditya & Mulabdic, Alen & Ruta, Michele, 2024. "Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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