IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/25035.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring Political Leader’s Geopolitical Risk Perceptions

Author

Listed:
  • Asei ITO
  • Jaehwan LIM
  • Hongyong ZHANG

Abstract

Does a political leader’s perception of geopolitical risk influence the real economy? If so, to what extent and through what mechanisms? Using local-language sources, we explore these questions by constructing a geopolitical risk index based on textual data from statements made by Chinese President Xi Jinping and examining its relationship to firms’ investment behavior in China. The index shows notable spikes in April 2016, June 2018, and April 2022, corresponding to terrorist attacks in neighboring countries, U.S.-China tensions, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We find that an increase in the geopolitical risk index is associated with a decline in firms’ investment rates. Specifically, a 100% increase in the index leads to a 14.1% reduction in investment. Notably, politically connected firms are less affected, indicating their ability to mitigate the negative effects of geopolitical risk. Our findings advance the geopolitical risk literature by highlighting the role of political leaders’ perceptions, utilizing local sources to measure this factor, and examining the moderating effect of political connections under geopolitical risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Asei ITO & Jaehwan LIM & Hongyong ZHANG, 2025. "Measuring Political Leader’s Geopolitical Risk Perceptions," Discussion papers 25035, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:25035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/25e035.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
    2. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    3. Shen, Huayu & Liang, Yue & Li, Hanwen & Liu, Jie & Lu, Guangxi, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk promote mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in energy and electric power industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. B. Dan Wood, 2009. "Presidential Saber Rattling and the Economy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 695-709, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Siddhartha Barman & Jitendra Mahakud, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, and Sustainable Disclosure on Corporate Performance," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 32(1), pages 167-203, March.
    2. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Jia, Shaoqing & Yang, Liuyong & Zhou, Fangzhao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Sabani, Nazmie & Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "On the different impact of local and national sources of policy uncertainty on sectoral stock volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    5. Guo, Peng & Shi, Jing, 2024. "Geopolitical risks, investor sentiment and industry stock market volatility in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Chen, Shi & Zhao, Yonghong & Chang, Chuen-Ping & Lin, Jyh-Horng & Chang, Ching-Hui, 2024. "Vertical acquisition and carbon capture and storage choices under cap-and-trade regulation with sustainable finance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Luo, Keyu & Wang, Qi & Liang, Chao, 2022. "The way to break the resource curse: New evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Shen, Huayu & Hou, Fei, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and corporate innovation evidence from Chinese listed firms in new energy vehicle industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    9. Rao, Sandeep & Koirala, Santosh & Aldhawyan, Sulaiman & Corbet, Shaen, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and M&A: The role of national governance institutions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    10. Abdelaziz Eissa, Mohamed & Al Refai, Hisham, 2024. "Context-dependent responses to geopolitical risk in Middle Eastern and African stock markets: An asymmetric volatility spillover study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "How does green finance affect green total factor productivity? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Li, Mangmang & Cao, Yuqiang & Lu, Meiting & Wang, Hongjian, 2021. "Political uncertainty and allocation of decision rights among business groups: Evidence from the replacement of municipal officials," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Pu, Xiaohong & Zeng, Ming & Zhang, Weike, 2023. "Corporate sustainable development driven by high-quality innovation: Does fiscal decentralization really matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 273-289.
    14. Min Liu & Wei‐Chong Choo & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2023. "Trading volume and realized volatility forecasting: Evidence from the China stock market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 76-100, January.
    15. Tchai Tavor, 2024. "Analyzing the influence of Airbnb announcements in the Asia Pacific Region: a sectoral perspective on travel, tourism, and real estate," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 873-905, December.
    16. Yaghoubi, Mona, 2024. "Executive characteristics as moderators: Exploring the impact of geopolitical risk on capital structure decisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. Zhang, Wenwen & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2023. "Country risks, government subsidies, and Chinese renewable energy firm performance: New evidence from a quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    18. Zhang, Weike & Luo, Qian & Liu, Shiyuan, 2022. "Is government regulation a push for corporate environmental performance? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-121.
    19. Wen, Huwei & Zhong, Qiming & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Digitalization, competition strategy and corporate innovation: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing listed companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Zhiwei Li & Jinlong Chen, 2024. "Supplier innovativeness, supplier relationships, and enterprises' finance constraints," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(2), pages 652-663, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:25035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.