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Measuring Political Leader’s Geopolitical Risk Perceptions

Author

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  • Asei ITO
  • Jaehwan LIM
  • Hongyong ZHANG

Abstract

Does a political leader’s perception of geopolitical risk influence the real economy? If so, to what extent and through what mechanisms? Using local-language sources, we explore these questions by constructing a geopolitical risk index based on textual data from statements made by Chinese President Xi Jinping and examining its relationship to firms’ investment behavior in China. The index shows notable spikes in April 2016, June 2018, and April 2022, corresponding to terrorist attacks in neighboring countries, U.S.-China tensions, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We find that an increase in the geopolitical risk index is associated with a decline in firms’ investment rates. Specifically, a 100% increase in the index leads to a 14.1% reduction in investment. Notably, politically connected firms are less affected, indicating their ability to mitigate the negative effects of geopolitical risk. Our findings advance the geopolitical risk literature by highlighting the role of political leaders’ perceptions, utilizing local sources to measure this factor, and examining the moderating effect of political connections under geopolitical risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Asei ITO & Jaehwan LIM & Hongyong ZHANG, 2025. "Measuring Political Leader’s Geopolitical Risk Perceptions," Discussion papers 25035, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:25035
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    Cited by:

    1. Thi Thanh Ha DOAN & Asei ITO & Changyuan LUO & Hongyong ZHANG, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification: Evidence from Japanese multinational firms," Discussion papers 25112, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • P23 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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