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The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets

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  • Boer, Lukas
  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • Rieth, Malte

Abstract

We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively overall, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation of the US-Dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. These effects reveal elements of both relative price shocks and uncertainty shocks of which the latter may be more important. Chinese trade policy shocks against the US further hurt US stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Boer, Lukas & Menkhoff, Lukas & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224529, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc20:224529
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kagerer, B., 2024. "Geopolitics and corporate risk: Evidence from EU-Russia conflict shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2471, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Lindahl, Robert & Stenvall, David & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Geopolitical shocks and commodity market dynamics: New evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Bonk, Alica Ida & Larkou, Chloe, 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of trade policy: a new identification approach," Working Paper Series 3102, European Central Bank.
    5. Rao, Amar & Lucey, Brian & Kumar, Satish, 2025. "Financial market reactions to U.S. tariff announcements: Evidence from trade-surplus and trade-deficit countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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