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Time-Varying Causality Impact of Global Economic Conditions Index on Remittances in Lebanon

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  • Akçay Selçuk

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Türkiye)

Abstract

Using the recently developed Global Economic Conditions Index, a time-varying Granger causality approach, as well as relying on the monthly dataset from January 2002 to June 2021, we investigate both symmetric and asymmetric causality between the Global Economic Condition Index and remittances in Lebanon, a small open economy significantly reliant on remittances. Rather than being asymmetric, we find a statistically significant, symmetric, time-varying causality between the Global Economic Conditions Index and remittances. Several robustness tests validate our findings. Given this finding, we propose relevant policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Akçay Selçuk, 2025. "Time-Varying Causality Impact of Global Economic Conditions Index on Remittances in Lebanon," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 73-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:21:y:2025:i:1:p:73-90:n:1005
    DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2025-0002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    remittances; global economic conditions index; time-varying causality; Lebanon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

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