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Monetary Policy Surprises, Central Bank Information Shocks, and Economic Activity in a Small Open Economy

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  • Laséen, Stefan

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

In this paper I study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and asset prices in Sweden, separately identifying the effects of a conventional policy change from effects of new information about economic fundamentals. Recent research has shown that high-frequency changes in policy interest rate futures prices around central bank policy announcements might not only contain monetary policy shocks but also central bank information shocks. I add to this line of research by studying a case where the central bank, in contrast to many other central banks studied in this literature, is very open and transparent about the monetary policy decision and publishes a full set of forecasts including the interest rate at the same moment as the decision is revealed. I use this information to construct an informationally-robust instrument for monetary policy shocks as the component of high-frequency market surprises triggered by policy announcements that is orthogonal to both central bank’s economic projections, including policy rate projections, and to past market surprises. I also add sign restrictions on stock market changes around the announcement to separate structural monetary policy shock from central bank information shocks. In contrast to recent work for other countries, I do not find that separating monetary policy shocks from central bank information shocks is important to measure the effects of monetary policy in Sweden.

Suggested Citation

  • Laséen, Stefan, 2020. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Central Bank Information Shocks, and Economic Activity in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 396, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0396
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; External Instruments; Monetary Policy Surprises; Information Effect; Small Open Economy; Exchange Rate; Stock Prices; House Prices.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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