Are Devaluations Really Contractionary?
Given the theoretical disagreement on the effect of a devaluation on output, empirical evidence plays an fundamental role. Empirical findings have favored the view that devaluations are contractionary. In this paper the author argues that what stands behind these results is selection bias. In theory, the same variables that determine the probability of a devaluation determine the rate of growth of output. The author controls for selection bias using matching estimators and extensive dataset of 155 countries for the period 1970-1999 that includes as many as 264 devaluation episodes. Not controlling for selection bias, devaluations appear to becontractionary, in line with previous findings. Nevertheless, when the author controls for this bias, the contractionary effect vanishes. Extensive sensitivity analysis is provided.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael Hutchison, 2001.
"A cure worse than the disease? currency crises and the output costs of IMF-supported stabilization programs,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael Hutchison, 2003. "A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 321-360 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael M. Hutchison, . "A Cure Worse Than The Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs," EPRU Working Paper Series 01-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Michael M. Hutchison, 2001. "A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs," NBER Working Papers 8305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1.
- Derrick Reagle & Dominick Salvatore, 2000. "Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 247-259, July.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1985.
"Are Devaluations Contractionary?,"
NBER Working Papers
1676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999.
"The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Schleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2001.
"Investor Protection and Corporate Governance,"
Working Paper Series
rwp01-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 1999. "Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: an empirical study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 197-202, August.
- Kamal Upadhyaya & Mukti Upadhyay, 1999. "Output effects of devaluation: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 89-103.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996.
"Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000.
"Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robert J. Barro, 1998.
"Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543.
- Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000.
"Finance and the sources of growth,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
- Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1995.
"Estimating labour supply responses using tax reforms,"
IFS Working Papers
W95/07, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 827-862, July.
- Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2000. "Evaluation methods for non-experimental data," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 427-468, January.
- Francesco Caselli & Gerardo Esquivel & Fernando Lefort, 1997.
"Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
03, Central Bank of Chile.
- Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
- Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Staff Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
- James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
- Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986.
"Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
- Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1986. "Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 17-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.