IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0107003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation, Output, and Stabilization in a High Inflation Economy: Turkey, 1980-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Selahattin Dibooglu

    (Southern Illinois Univ. at Carbondale & Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Aykut Kibritcioglu

    (Ankara Univ. & Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

This paper surveys and examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in Turkey. Using a dynamic open economy aggregate supply - aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural vector-autoregressions, the authors consider real oil price, supply, balance of payments, real demand, and monetary disturbances. Empirical results indicate that inflation is driven by monetary and real demand disturbances while output is mainly driven by aggregate supply disturbances. The historical decomposition shows that a substantial portion of inflation is aggregate demand-driven core inflation. A credible disinflation program accompanied by structural reform is likely to stabilize the economy with little output costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Selahattin Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Inflation, Output, and Stabilization in a High Inflation Economy: Turkey, 1980-2000," Macroeconomics 0107003, EconWPA, revised 26 Jul 2001.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0107003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0107/0107003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kibrit├žio─člu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 43-76.
    2. Mariano Roberto S & Gultekin Bulent N & Ozmucur Suleyman & Shabbir Tayyeb & Alper C. Emre, 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stabilization Policy - Turkey; Inflation- Causes and Effects; Inflation Theories; Turkey- Macroeconomic Developments; Macroeconomics - Theory of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand; Time Series Models;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0107003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.