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Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation

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  • Aykut Kibritcioglu

    (Ankara University and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

Turkey has experienced high and persistent inflation for more than twenty years. This chapter attempts firstly to survey the extremely broad literature on theories of inflation, in order to be able to classify, understand and discuss the dynamics of inflation more carefully. In this chapter, it is mainly argued that inflation may be interpreted as a net result of sophisticated and continuous interactions of demand-side (or monetary) shocks, supply-side (or real) shocks, price-adjustment (or inertial) factors and political processes (or institutional factors). The second aim of the chapter is to compare the existing empirical studies on Turkish inflation, by considering their sample period, data frequency, empirical methods, modeled macroeconomic variables and main results. Most of the studies reviewed here seem to have focused primarily on demand-side determinants (e. g., monetary growth and budget deficits), and partially on some supply-side factors (e. g., nominal exchange rates and oil prices). On the other hand, the components, degree and effects of inflation inertia need to be investigated in more detail. In the future, the modeling attempts of the inflationary dynamics in Turkey would profit from the so-called “new political macroeconomics” because the role of the political process and institutions is not a weak explanatory factor of Turkish inflation that is easily ignored.

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  • Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0107002, EconWPA, revised 21 Jun 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0107002
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; to print on American letter size printers; pages: 46 ; figures: included. PDF document submitted via ftp
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    Cited by:

    1. Cem Akyurek, 2006. "The Turkish Crisis of 2001: A Classic?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 5-32, February.
    2. Ümit Özlale & Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, 2005. "Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2005/2, Turkish Economic Association.
    3. Daniel Leigh & Marco Rossi, 2002. "Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/231, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Us, Vuslat, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1003-1013, December.
    5. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: he Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 19589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2002. "Velocity Effect On Inflationary Growth of Turkey: Evidence From Co-integration Analysis and Granger's Causality Test," MPRA Paper 259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 493-509, November.
    8. Cem Akyurek, 2006. "The Turkish Crisis of 2001: A Classic?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(1), pages 5-32, February.
    9. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Ebrahim, M. Shahid, 2009. "Can an Islamic model of housing finance cooperative elevate the economic status of the underprivileged?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 864-883, December.
    11. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Mathur, Ike, 2007. "Pricing home mortgages and bank collateral: A rational expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1217-1244, April.
    12. Korap, Levent & Saatçioğlu, Cem, 2009. "New time series evidence for the causality relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19246, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Inflation theories; causes of inflation; political economy of inflation; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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