Optimal univariate expectations under high and persistent inflation: new evidence from Turkey
The poor performance of sticky-price models with rational expectations in explaining the inflationary inertia in the US economy constitutes the basis for sticky-price models of near-rational expectations in the recent literature. However, previous studies on inflationary inertia in Turkey not only lack a model of nominal stickiness but also do not try to explain inflation persistence by expectations. Even though, there exists evidence for persistent inflation in Turkey as confirmed by earlier studies, and other studies provide evidence that expectations are neither perfectly rational nor purely adaptive, there is no attempt to link this near-rational behavior to inflationary inertia. Given this gap, this paper, therefore, tests empirically a sticky-price model under the assumption of near-rational expectations on two different inflation episodes in the Turkish economy. The near-rational expectations as described by optimal univariate expectations where agents use information on past inflation optimally while data on other variables are ignored, not only fit the data for both periods but also are not subject to Lucas critique. Alternatively, near-rational expectations are assumed to be backward looking. This alternative scenario shows that optimal univariate expectations perform even better during relatively higher inflation periods.
Volume (Year): 346 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
- George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen, 1985. "A Near-Rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 823-838.
- Hakan Berument, 2003.
"Public Sector Pricing Behavior and Inflation Risk Premium in Turkey,"
Eastern European Economics,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 68-78, January.
- Hakan Berument, 2001. "Public Sector Pricing Behavior And Inflation Risk Premium In Turkey," Working Papers 0109, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
- Laura Papi & G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
- Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Keynes, Lucas, and Scientific Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 130-136, May.
- Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
- John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," NBER Working Papers 1636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Laurence, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 439-452, August.
- Laurence Ball, 1991. "The genesis of inflation and the costs of disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 439-461.
- Laurence Ball, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 3621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olcay Yucel Emir & Almila Karasoy & Kursat Kunter, 2000. "Monetary Policy Reaction Function In Turkey," Discussion Papers 0005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- O. Cevdet Akcay & C. Emre Alper & Suleyman Ozmucur, 1996. "Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data for Turkey," Working Papers 1996/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Ercan Uygur, 1989. "Inflation Expectations of the Turkish Manufacturing Firms," Discussion Papers 8904, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & Willy W. Hoffmaister, 1997. "Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/174, International Monetary Fund.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-190, February.
- Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-Rationality and Inflation in Two Monetary Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-Rationality and Inflation in Two Monetary Regimes," Economics Working Paper Archive 435, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Soner Baskaya & Pelin Berkmen & H.Murat Ozbilgin & Erdal Yilmaz, 1999. "TEFE ve TUFE Endeksleri ile Alt Kalemlerindeki Mevsimsel Hareketlerin Incelenmesi," Working Papers 9902, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:346:y:2005:i:3:p:499-517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.