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Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Ümit Özlale

    (Bilkent University)

  • Kivilcim Metin Ozcan

    (Bilkent University)

Abstract

We analyze the implications of the time inconsistency problem for the Turkish monetary policy in the last two decades. After deriving the restrictions that the Barro and Gordon model imposes on a time series model for inflation and output, we show that the time inconsistency problem can explain both the short-run and the long-run behaviour of inflation and output in the Turkish economy. The results also reveal that the Turkish monetary policymakers have put more emphasis on output stability than price stability in the last decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ümit Özlale & Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, 2005. "Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2005/2, Turkish Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:tek:wpaper:2005/2
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    File URL: http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/U-OZLALE-K-M-OZCAN.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Hakan Berument, 1997. "Financing divided governments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 369-372.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 43-76.
    7. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    8. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
    9. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    10. Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Willy W. Hoffmaister, 1997. "Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/174, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    13. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-531, November.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Gabriel Montes, 2014. "Time-inconsistency problem: less common than we think," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 708-720, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Turkish Economy; Time Inconsistency; Kalman Filter;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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