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The Dynamics of High Inflation


  • Laurence Ball


This paper presents a model of a high-inflation economy. The model includes the government budget constraint and money demand equation of Cagan's 1956 model; an accelerationist Phillips curve that captures inflation inertia; and an aggregate-spending equation that accounts for the effects of the inflation tax. The paper derives the dynamic effects of fiscal policy, incomes policies, and supply shocks, and uses the results to interpret high-inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Ball, 1993. "The Dynamics of High Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4578
    Note: EFG ME

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation; An Analytical Overview," IMF Working Papers 91/107, International Monetary Fund.
    2. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E & Vegh, Carlos A, 1998. "Inflation Stabilisation and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 105-131, January.
    3. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1982. "Economic policy in a world of change," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-6, January.
    4. Eckstein, Zvi & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: Evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 389-410, June.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    6. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    8. Corbo, Vittorio & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "Chile's experience with stabilization, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 579, The World Bank.
    9. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
    10. A. E. Fernández Jilberto, 1991. "Introduction," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 3-9, March.
    11. Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1990. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 147-164.
    12. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    13. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    2. Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 43-76.
    3. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
    4. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
    5. PareshKumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Structural Breaks And Unit Roots In Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 421-437, December.
    6. Waheed, Muhammad & Alam, Tasneem & Ghauri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2006. "Structural breaks and unit root: evidence from Pakistani macroeconomic time series," MPRA Paper 1797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    8. Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Tang, D.P., 2013. "Revisiting the mean reversion of inflation rates for 22 OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 245-252.
    9. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
    10. Guy Debelle, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2008. "Testing for stationarity of inflation in Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2008/13, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation


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