IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/4578.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamics of High Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence Ball

Abstract

This paper presents a model of a high-inflation economy. The model includes the government budget constraint and money demand equation of Cagan's 1956 model; an accelerationist Phillips curve that captures inflation inertia; and an aggregate-spending equation that accounts for the effects of the inflation tax. The paper derives the dynamic effects of fiscal policy, incomes policies, and supply shocks, and uses the results to interpret high-inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Ball, 1993. "The Dynamics of High Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4578
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4578.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Working Papers 1991/107, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1982. "Economic policy in a world of change," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-6, January.
    3. Eckstein, Zvi & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: Evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 389-410, June.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E & Vegh, Carlos A, 1998. "Inflation Stabilisation and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 105-131, January.
    6. Helmut Frisch & Andreas Wörgötter (ed.), 1993. "Open-Economy Macroeconomics," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-12884-6, December.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    8. Corbo, Vittorio & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "Chile's experience with stabilization, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 579, The World Bank.
    9. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
    10. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    11. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    12. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    13. Harberger, Arnold C., 1982. "The Chilean economy in the 1970s: Crisis, stabilization, liberalization, reform," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 115-152, January.
    14. Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1990. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 147-164.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    2. Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 43-76.
    3. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
    4. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Structural Breaks And Unit Roots In Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 421-437, December.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2013. "Convergence of Inflationary Shocks: Evidence from the Caribbean," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1229-1243, September.
    7. Waheed, Muhammad & Alam, Tasneem & Ghauri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2006. "Structural breaks and unit root: evidence from Pakistani macroeconomic time series," MPRA Paper 1797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chi-Sheng Hsu & Cyun-Jhen Pen, 2016. "Are Inflation Rates Mean-reverting Processes? Evidence from Six Asian Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 12(1), pages 119-155, February.
    9. Odedoyin, Stephen, 2012. "Changing Fiscal Policy Actions, Economic Growth and Inflation in Nigeria, 1980-2009," MPRA Paper 94431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jul 2012.
    10. Tony Caporale & Julia Paxton, 2013. "Inflation stationarity during Latin American inflation: insights from unit root and structural break analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(15), pages 2001-2010, May.
    11. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    12. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "The stationarity of inflation in Croatia: anti-inflation stabilization program and the change in persistence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 45-58, February.
    13. Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Tang, D.P., 2013. "Revisiting the mean reversion of inflation rates for 22 OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 245-252.
    14. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
    15. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    16. Guy Debelle, 1999. "Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilisation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2008. "Testing for stationarity of inflation in Central and Eastern European Countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/13, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    3. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4215-4281, Elsevier.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Oscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 376, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    8. Marc Hofstetter, 2007. "Disinflating From Moderate Inflation," Documentos CEDE 2373, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Jose Saboin, 2018. "The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 2018/266, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Michael Kumhof, 2002. "A Critical View of Inflation Targeting: Crises, Limited Sustaintability, and Aggregate Shocks," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 8, pages 349-394, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    12. Sulo Haderi & Harry Papapanagos & Peter Sanfey & Mirela Talka, 1999. "Inflation and Stabilisation in Albania," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 127-141.
    13. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    14. Mash, Richard, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 138, Royal Economic Society.
    15. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    16. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    17. Guillermo Calvo & Oya Celasun & Michael Kumhof, 2003. "Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation - The Open Economy Case," NBER Working Papers 9557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Pizzati, Lodovico, 2005. "Disinflation and the supply side," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 596-620, December.
    19. Maritta Paloviita, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 847-860, November.
    20. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.