IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?

  • Oscar J. Arce

    ()

    (Resarch Banco de España)

Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of monetization observed after the end of hyperinflations, I provide a cash-and-credit model in which the use of money exhibits some persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. This feature helps to account for the main stylized facts of extreme hyperinflations and reconcile some conflicting views on their causes, development and end without departing from rational expectations. Unlike the existing literature, I show that when hysteresis is possible, an orthodox fiscal-monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may not be sufficient to prevent it.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/sce2006/up.24674.1141137946.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 376.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:376
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://comp-econ.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bruno, Michael & Fischer, Stanley, 1990. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 353-74, May.
  2. Albanesi, Stefania, 2007. "Inflation and inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1088-1114, May.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," NBER Working Papers 10015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," CEMA Working Papers 594, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  4. Nichols, Donald A, 1974. "Some Principles of Inflationary Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 423-30, Part I, M.
  5. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
  8. Kiguel, Miguel A & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1995. "Seigniorage and Inflation: The Case of Argentina," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 672-82, August.
  9. Blackburn, K. & Sola, M., 1992. "Market fundamentals versus speculative bubbles. A new test applied to the German hyperinflation," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9208, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1985. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," NBER Working Papers 1618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ireland, Peter N, 1995. "Endogenous Financial Innovation and the Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 107-23, February.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 147-64, January.
  14. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 509, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
  16. Kiguel, Miguel A, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 148-57, May.
  17. Mariano Tommasi & Guillermo Mondino & Federico Sturzenegger, 1995. "Recurrent High Inflation and Stabilization: A Dynamic Game," Working Papers 10, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Nov 1996.
  18. Zvi Eckstein & Leonardo Leiderman, 1991. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  19. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  20. Van Zandt, Timothy & Lettau, Martin, 2003. "Robustness Of Adaptive Expectations As An Equilibrium Selection Device," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 89-118, February.
  21. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
  22. Chang, Roberto, 1989. "Endogenous Currency Substitution, Inflationary Finance, And Welfare," Working Papers 89-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  23. Bental, B. & Eckstein, Z., 1988. "The Dynamics Of Inflation With Constant Deficit Under Expected Regime Change," Papers 35-88, Tel Aviv.
  24. Beatrix Paal, 2000. "Destabilizing effects of a successful stabilization: a forward-looking explanation of the second Hungarian hyperinflation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 599-630.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "The Realities of Modern Hyperinflation," MPRA Paper 7578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. repec:cup:macdyn:v:7:y:2003:i:1:p:89-118 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. María-José Gutiérrez & Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation-Tax Curve, and Modeling the Use of Money," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 160(2), pages 311-, June.
  28. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
  29. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund.
  30. repec:rus:hseeco:123906 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Lettau, M. & Van Zandt, T., 1995. "Robustness of Adaptive Expections as an Equilibrium Selection Device," Papers 9598, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  32. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1987. "The Bolivian Hyperinflation and Stabilization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 279-83, May.
  33. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  34. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
  35. Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1996. "Ruling out speculative hyperinflations The role of the government," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 791-809, May.
  36. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Testing for sunspot equilibria in the German hyperinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 289-317.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.