IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Budget deficits and inflation feedback

  • Pekarski, Sergey

This paper reinterprets the mixed evidence of the relationship between budget deficits and inflation in high inflation economies. The main finding is that recurrent outbursts of extreme inflation in these economies can be explained by a certain hysteresis effect associated with public finance. This interpretation meets the evidence that dramatic shifts between regimes of moderately high and extremely high (hyper-) inflation often occur without visible deterioration in public finance or abrupt shifts in fiscal or monetary policies. The existence of this hysteresis effect is explicitly explained by the action of two mechanisms: the arithmetic associated with the wrong side of the inflation tax Laffer curve and the Patinkin effect (the reverse of the much oftener cited Olivera-Tanzi effect). It is also shown that the division of the operational budget deficit into the part that is subject to negative inflation feedback and the part that is inflation-proof has implications for both the discussion of the inflationary consequences of budget deficits and the design of stabilization policy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFN-51491DB-1/2/3cdd6a5b0a5d30aecfcef9b5be3ca743
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-11

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:22:y:2011:i:1:p:1-11
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2005. "Money and Prices in Models of Bounded Rationality in High Inflation Economies," Working Papers 217, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Optimal Inflation Tax under Precommitment: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 179-94, March.
  3. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1993. "Hyperinflations and moral hazard in the appropriation of seigniorage," Working Papers 93-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
  5. Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world: Experimental evidence," Economics Working Papers 25, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Ugo Panizza, 2008. "Domestic And External Public Debt In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 188, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  7. Kiguel, Miguel A & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1995. "Seigniorage and Inflation: The Case of Argentina," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 672-82, August.
  8. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 02/197, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Eckstein, Zvi & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: Evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 389-410, June.
  10. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-31, February.
  12. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639, March.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Arrau, Patricio & DeGregorio, Jose & Wickham, Peter, 1995. "The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation," MPRA Paper 14096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Eliane A. Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Working Papers 98/41, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Óscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative hyperinflations: when can we rule them out?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0607, Banco de Espa�a.
  16. Bental, Benjamin & Eckstein, Zvi, 1997. "On the Fit of a Neoclassical Monetary Model in High Inflation: Israel 1972-1990," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 725-52, November.
  17. Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Expectations and learning under alternative monetary regimes: An experimental approach," Economics Working Papers 37, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  18. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
  19. Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "Explaining Fiscal Policies and Inflation in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Taimur Baig & Abdul Abiad, 2005. "Underlying Factors Driving Fiscal Effort in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/106, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Heymann, Daniel & Sanguinetti, Pablo, 1994. "Fiscal inconsistencies and high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 85-104, February.
  22. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, March.
  23. Evans, Jean Lynne & Yarrow, George Keith, 1981. "Some Implications of Alternative Expectations Hypotheses in the Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-80, March.
  24. Gutiérrez Huerta, María José & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2002. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money," DFAEII Working Papers 2002-27, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  25. Don Patinkin, 1993. "Israel's Stabilization Program of 1985, or Some Simple Truths of Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 103-128, Spring.
  26. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
  27. Bruno, Michael & Fischer, Stanley, 1990. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 353-74, May.
  28. Sallum, Elvia Mureb & Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda & Cunha, Alexandre Barros da, 2005. "Competitive Equilibrium Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 578, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  29. Eliana Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 619-646, December.
  30. Kiguel, Miguel A, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 148-57, May.
  31. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Gavrilenkov, Evgeny, 1995. "Macroeconomic Stabilization and "Black Holes" in the Russian Economy," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 36(2), pages 181-188, December.
  33. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1995. "Hyperinflations and moral hazard in the appropriation of seigniorage: an empirical implementation with a calibration approach," Working Papers 9517, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  34. Bruno, Michael, 1989. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 275-306, March.
  35. Bali, Turan G. & Thurston, Thom, 2000. "Empirical estimates of inflation tax Laffer surfaces: a 30-country study," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 529-546, December.
  36. Stanley Fischer, 1995. "Modern Approaches to Central Banking," NBER Working Papers 5064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:22:y:2011:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.