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Seigniorage, Operating Rules and the High Inflation Trap

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  • Michael Bruno
  • Stanley Fischer

Abstract

A given amount of seigniorage revenue can be collected at either a high or a low rate of inflation. Thus there ray be two equilibria when a government finances its deficit by printing money--implying that an economy may be stuck in a high inflation equilibrium when, with the same fiscal policy, it could be at a lower inflation rate. We show that under rational expectations the high inflation equilibrium is stable and the low inflation equilibrium unstable; under adaptive expectations or lagged adjustment of money balances with rational expectations, it may be the low inflation equilibrium that is stable. Extending the model to allow for bond as well as money financing of deficits, we show that one of the equilibria disappears if the government sets a nominal anchor for the economy, for instance by fixing the growth rate of money. The dual equilibria and their stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bruno & Stanley Fischer, 1987. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules and the High Inflation Trap," NBER Working Papers 2413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2413 Note: EFG
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
    3. George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen, 1985. "A Near-Rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 823-838.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 1985. "Monopolistic Competition, Aggregate Demand Externalities and Real Effects of Nominal Money," NBER Working Papers 1770, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Laurence Ball, 1988. "Is Equilibrium Indexation Efficient?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 299-311.
    6. Gray, Jo Anna, 1978. "On Indexation and Contract Length," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Parkin, Michael, 1986. "The Output-Inflation Trade-off When Prices Are Costly to Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 200-224, February.
    8. Andrew S. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 703-725.
    9. Matsukawa, Shigeru, 1986. "The Equilibrium Distribution of Wage Settlements and Economic Stability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 415-437, June.
    10. Fethke, Gary & Policano, Andrew, 1984. "Wage contingencies, the pattern of negotiation and aggregate implications of alternative contract structures," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 151-170, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gottlieb, Daniel, 1990. "Inflation and Policy Response - The Israeli Case: 1970-1989," MPRA Paper 4114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Szybisz, Martín A. & Szybisz, Leszek, 2017. "Extended nonlinear feedback model for describing episodes of high inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 91-108.
    3. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Rocha, Roberto de Rezende, 1991. "Stabilization programs in Eastern Europe : a comparative analysis of the Polish and Yugoslav programs of 1990," Policy Research Working Paper Series 732, The World Bank.

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