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Competitive Equilibrium Hyperinflation Under Rational Expectations

In: Exploring the Mechanics of Chronic Inflation and Hyperinflation

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando de Holanda Barbosa

    (Getulio Vargas Foundation Graduate School of Economics (EPGE/FGV))

Abstract

Cagan’s (1956) seminal work provided the first attempt to explain the hyperinflation phenomenon. That essay was so influential that small variations of Cagan’s model can be found in several textbooks, such as Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996) and Romer (2001).Cagan’s model is capable of generating hyperinflation under two types of expectation mechanisms: adaptive and rational. Both are unsatisfactory because adaptive expectations yield systematic forecasting errors, while rational expectations need to be combined with a partial adjustment mechanism in the monetary market. Moreover, both mechanisms require violation of the government intertemporal budget constraint to generate a hyperinflation. That is, in Cagan’s model hyperinflation is not a competitive equilibrium outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2017. "Competitive Equilibrium Hyperinflation Under Rational Expectations," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Exploring the Mechanics of Chronic Inflation and Hyperinflation, chapter 0, pages 77-91, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:spbchp:978-3-319-44512-0_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-44512-0_7
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2005. "Special interests and political business cycles," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 597, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Alexandre Sokic, 2012. "The Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflation and the Appropriate Specification of the Demand for Money," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(2), pages 142-160, May.
    3. Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda, 2005. "The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the brazilian experience," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 591, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. López-Martín, Bernabé & Ramírez de Aguilar, Alberto & Samano, Daniel, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Understanding the Role of Expectations in Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9025, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Araújo, Fabio & Issler, João Victor & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2005. "Estimating the stochastic discount factor without a utility function," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 583, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Pekarski, Sergey, 2011. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    7. Alexandre Sokic, 2008. "Theoretical support for a new class of demand for real cash balances in explosive hyperinflations," Working Papers of BETA 2008-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. Fernando de Holanda Barbosa & Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2008. "Testing Hyperinflation Theories Using the Inflation Tax Curve: A Case Study," Working Papers Series 166, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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