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Disinflations In Latin America And The Caribbean: A Free Lunch?

Listed author(s):
  • Marc Hofstetter

    ()

This paper challenges the conventional view according to which disinflations in Latin America -even from low and moderate peaks- have been carried out at no cost to output. After suggesting a new methodology that overcomes some of the shortcomings of the traditional methods used to measure the costs of disinflations, large sacrifice ratios are obtained for the 1970s and 80s. While the disinflation costs for the 90s remain negative, it is shown that an unusual combination of circumstances -i.e., factors related to capital inflows, structural reforms, and the peculiar recent inflation history- can explain this fortunate result.

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File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/d2006-04.pdf
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Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 002375.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 10 Jan 2006
Handle: RePEc:col:000089:002375
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  1. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Moderate Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4303, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E & Vegh, Carlos A, 1998. "Inflation Stabilisation and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 105-131, January.
  5. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  7. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Why Have So Many Disinflations Succeeded?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(1), pages 89-106, 01.
  9. John B. Taylor, 1982. "Union Wage Settlements During a Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 0985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  11. By A. Javier Hamann, 2001. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-4.
  12. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2005. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 231-262, 08.
  13. Escaith, Hubert & Morley, Samuel A., 2000. "The impact of structural reforms on growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an empirical estimation," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 1, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  14. Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 39858, Inter-American Development Bank.
  15. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1.
  18. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
  19. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  20. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  21. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José Manuel Montero, 2006. "Real Exchange Rates, Dollarization and Industrial Employment in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6837, Inter-American Development Bank.
  22. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2685, The World Bank.
  23. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1995. "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 5209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  25. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
  27. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49.
  28. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2001. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects," Economics Working Paper Archive 446, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  29. Sánchez, Óscar & Seade, Juan & Werner, Alejandro, 2001. "Los costos asociados al proceso desinflacionario," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(270), pages 157-194, abril-jun.
  30. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-468, May.
  31. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos
    [Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of Ex
    ," MPRA Paper 13681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  34. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1994. "Inflation Stabilization And Nominal Anchors," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, 04.
  35. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
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