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Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Free Lunch?

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  • Marc Hofstetter

Abstract

This paper challenges the conventional view according to which disinflations in LAC-even from low and moderate peaks-have been carried out at no cost to output. After suggesting a new methodology that allows for long-lived effects and inflation inertia when measuring costs of disinflations, large sacrifice ratios are obtained for the 1970s and 80s. Nevertheless, a new puzzle arises: disinflation costs in the 90s are negative, even with the new methodology. It is shown that an unusual combination of circumstances-i.e. capital inflows, structural reforms and the peculiar recent inflation history-can explain that fortunate result. Moreover, it is shown that LAC episodes exhibit a larger speed than G7 experiences. That speed differential explains why disinflation costs in developed nations are on average larger than LAC’s.

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  • Marc Hofstetter, 2004. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Free Lunch?," Economics Working Paper Archive 506, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:506
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás De Roux & Marc Hofstetter, 2014. "Sacrifice Ratios and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credibility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 381-401, December.
    2. Hofstetter, Marc, 2010. "Sticky prices and moderate inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 535-546, March.
    3. Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Why Have So Many Disinflations Succeeded?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(1), pages 89-106, January.
    4. Andrés Gonzalez & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, May.
    5. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
    6. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    7. Danilo José Rodrigues Passos & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2014. "Reavaliando A Relação Entre Independência Do Banco Central E Custos De Desinflação: Uma Análise De Viés De Seleção," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
    9. Marc Hofstetter, 2006. "La política monetaria y la Corte Constitucional: el caso del salario mínimo," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(14), pages 105-124, January-J.
    10. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2017. "Output gains from accelerating core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-74.
    11. Marc Hofstetter, 2005. "Política Monetaria Y La Corte Constitucional: El Caso Del Salario Mínimo," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003338, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    12. Marc Hofstetter, 2007. "Disinflating from moderate inflation in Latin America and Caribbean," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, June.
    13. Sergio Parra Cely, 2009. "Costos De Inflación En Un Modelo De Búsqueda Monetaria Con Formación Endógena De Precios: El Caso Colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 27(59), pages 46-82, June.
    14. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    15. Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "European Monetary Union and the Cost of Disinflation," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, September.
    16. Marc Hofstetter, 2007. "Disinflating From Moderate Inflation," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 002373, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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