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Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Free Lunch?

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  • Marc Hofstetter

Abstract

This paper challenges the conventional view according to which disinflations in LAC-even from low and moderate peaks-have been carried out at no cost to output. After suggesting a new methodology that allows for long-lived effects and inflation inertia when measuring costs of disinflations, large sacrifice ratios are obtained for the 1970s and 80s. Nevertheless, a new puzzle arises: disinflation costs in the 90s are negative, even with the new methodology. It is shown that an unusual combination of circumstances-i.e. capital inflows, structural reforms and the peculiar recent inflation history-can explain that fortunate result. Moreover, it is shown that LAC episodes exhibit a larger speed than G7 experiences. That speed differential explains why disinflation costs in developed nations are on average larger than LAC�s.

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  • Marc Hofstetter, 2004. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Free Lunch?," Economics Working Paper Archive 506, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:506
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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