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Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects


  • Lawrence Huiyan Zhang


This paper contains a theoretical and empirical study of sacrifice ratios with long-lived effects including possible strong persistence effects or even hysteresis effects The empirical analysis is based on G-7 quarterly output data as well as unemployment data from 1960 to 1999 In this paper I develop some new methods to measure sacrifice ratios with long-lived effects I reach four conclusions: First sacrifice ratios with long-lived effects are larger than sacrifice ratios that do not account for long-lived effects Second from a theoretical model and simulation the standard method of measuring sacrifice ratios by Ball (1994) has a larger downward bias for countries with larger long-lived effects Third both random and fixed effect models show that there is a negative relationship between sacrifice ratios and initial inflations which can provide one explanation of the large magnitude of sacrifice ratios with long-lived effects in the 1990s compared with other periods Fourth there is no significant negative relationship between sacrifice ratios with long-lived effects and nominal wage rigidities

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  • Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2001. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects," Economics Working Paper Archive 446, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:446

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    3. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
    4. Posen, Adam, 1998. "Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-359, July.
    5. John M. Roberts & Norman J. Morin, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1645-1660, December.
    9. W. Wascher & Palle S. Andersen, 1999. "Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation," BIS Working Papers 82, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 11-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dolado, Juan J. & López-Salido, J David, 1996. "Hysteresis and Economic Fluctuations (Spain, 1970-94)," CEPR Discussion Papers 1334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Guy Debelle, 1996. "The Ends of Three Small Inflations: Australia, New Zealand and Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 22(1), pages 56-78, March.
    16. Thomas Jordan, 1997. "Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 1-21, March.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    2. Marc Hofstetter, 2005. "Política Monetaria Y La Corte Constitucional: El Caso Del Salario Mínimo," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003338, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    3. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

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