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Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro: une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel

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  • Fève, Patrick
  • Matheron, Julien
  • Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume

Abstract

Cet article étudie les effets dynamiques des chocs de désinflation sur un ensemble de variables réelles et nominales de la zone Euro. A l’aide d’un modèle VAR structurel, nous identifions le choc de désinflation comme étant le seul choc ayant un effet permanent sur l’inflation à long terme ainsi que sur les variables nominales qui cointégrent avec elle. Nous montrons que ce choc a des effets récessionnistes importants, notamment sur l’investissement, et provoque une hausse persistante du taux de chômage et du taux d’intérêt réel. Nous complétons cette analyse en calculant des mesures d’inefficience sur les marchés des biens et du travail et nous montrons que ce sont principalement ces dernières qui ont prévalues. Ces conclusions sont robustes à différentes mesures et schémas d’identification des chocs de désinflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2009. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro: une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle VAR structurel," TSE Working Papers 09-014, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22268
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    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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