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Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel

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  • Patrick Feve
  • Julien Matheron
  • Guillaume Sahuc

Abstract

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long-run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables cointegrating with inflation. These shocks are found to generate large recessionary effects, notably when it comes to investment, and triggers a persistent rise in unemployment and in the real interest rate. The analysis is complemented by computing inefficiency measures on goods and labor markets. We show that, after a disinflation shock, inefficiencies in the labor market seem to prevail. These conclusions are robust to modifications of our baseline identification scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Feve & Julien Matheron & Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Désinflation et chômage dans la zone euro : une analyse à l'aide d'un modèle var structurel," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 365-394.
    • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2010:i:99-100:p:365-394
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    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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