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Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?

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  • Hofstetter, Marc

Abstract

This paper challenges the conventional view according to which disinflations in Latin America - even from low and moderate peaks - have been carried out at no cost to output. After suggesting a new methodology that overcomes some of the shortcommings of the traditional methods used to measure the costs of disinflations, large sacrifice ratios are obtained for the 1970s and 1980s. While the disinflation costs for the 1990s remain negative, it is shown that an unusual combination of circumstances - i.e., factors related to capital inflows, structural reforms, and the peculiar recent inflation history - can explain this fortunate result.

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  • Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:327-345
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Why Have So Many Disinflations Succeeded?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(1), pages 89-106, January.
    3. Andrés Gonzalez & Franz Hamann, 2011. "Lack of Credibility, Inflation Persistence and Disinflation in Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes – Facultad de Economía – CEDE, May.
    4. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    5. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    6. Sergio Parra Cely, 2009. "Costos de inflación en un modelo de búsqueda monetaria con formación endógena de precios: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 27(59), pages 46-82, June.
    7. Dinabandhu Sethi & Wing-Keung Wong & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Can a Disinflationary Policy Have a Differential Impact on Sectoral Output? A Look at Sacrifice Ratios in OECD and Non-OECD Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 138-170, May.
    8. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
    9. Marc Hofstetter, 2006. "La política monetaria y la Corte Constitucional: el caso del salario mínimo," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(14), pages 105-124, January-J.
    10. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2020. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 115798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Marcus Giamattei, 2022. "Can Cold Turkey Reduce Inflation Inertia? Evidence on Disinflation and Level‐k Thinking from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2477-2517, December.
    12. Hofstetter, Marc, 2010. "Sticky prices and moderate inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 535-546, March.
    13. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "European Monetary Union and the Cost of Disinflation," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, September.
    15. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    16. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2017. "Output gains from accelerating core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-74.
    17. Golnaz B. Motie & Joshua Hall, 2020. "The Effect of Transparency, Independence and Accountability of Central Banks on Disinflation Costs," Working Papers 20-02, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    18. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2005. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long‐Lived Effects," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 231-262, August.
    19. Laura Gómez-Acevedo & Marc Hofstetter, 2020. "Disinflations and income distribution," Documentos CEDE 018481, Universidad de los Andes – Facultad de Economía – CEDE.
    20. Marc Hofstetter, 2007. "Disinflating From Moderate Inflation," Documentos CEDE 002373, Universidad de los Andes – Facultad de Economía – CEDE.
    21. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
    22. Danilo José Rodrigues Passos & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2014. "Reavaliando A Relação Entre Independência Do Banco Central E Custos De Desinflação: Uma Análise De Viés De Seleção," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    23. Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov & Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2022. "TheshorttermcostsofreducingtrendinflationinSouthAfrica," Working Papers 11029, South African Reserve Bank.
    24. Marc Hofstetter, 2007. "Disinflating from moderate inflation in Latin America and Caribbean," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    25. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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