IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v30y2008i1p327-345.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?

Author

Listed:
  • Hofstetter, Marc

Abstract

This paper challenges the conventional view according to which disinflations in Latin America - even from low and moderate peaks - have been carried out at no cost to output. After suggesting a new methodology that overcomes some of the shortcommings of the traditional methods used to measure the costs of disinflations, large sacrifice ratios are obtained for the 1970s and 1980s. While the disinflation costs for the 1990s remain negative, it is shown that an unusual combination of circumstances - i.e., factors related to capital inflows, structural reforms, and the peculiar recent inflation history - can explain this fortunate result.

Suggested Citation

  • Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:327-345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164-0704(07)00036-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    3. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Lora, Eduardo, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3338, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    6. By A. Javier Hamann, 2001. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-4.
    7. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Why Have So Many Disinflations Succeeded?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(1), pages 89-106, January.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    10. Galindo, Arturo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Montero, Jose Manuel, 2007. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 284-298, December.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    14. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
    15. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
    16. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E & Vegh, Carlos A, 1998. "Inflation Stabilisation and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 105-131, January.
    17. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    18. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-468, May.
    19. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
    20. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    21. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2005. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long‐Lived Effects," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 231-262, August.
    23. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Business Cycle Associated.with Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(2), pages 279-305, May.
    25. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1994. "Inflation Stabilization And Nominal Anchors," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, April.
    26. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, October.
    27. Machado, Roberto & Morley, Samuel A. & Pettinato, Stefano, 1999. "Indexes of structural reform in Latin America," Series Históricas 7453, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    28. Escaith, Hubert & Morley, Samuel A., 2000. "The impact of structural reforms on growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an empirical estimation," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5331, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    29. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    30. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49.
    31. Sánchez, Óscar & Seade, Juan & Werner, Alejandro, 2001. "Los costos asociados al proceso desinflacionario," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 68(270), pages 157-194, abril-jun.
    32. Taylor, John B, 1983. "Union Wage Settlements during a Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 981-993, December.
    33. Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Indexing, Inflation, and Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561638, December.
    34. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    35. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2001. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects," Economics Working Paper Archive 446, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    36. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    37. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Reformed and How to Measure It," Research Department Publications 4293, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    39. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    40. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Hofstetter, 2007. "Disinflating From Moderate Inflation," Documentos CEDE 2373, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    3. Marc Hofstetter, 2007. "Disinflating from moderate inflation in Latin America and Caribbean," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    4. Mr. A. J Hamann & Mr. Alessandro Prati, 2002. "Why Do Many Disinflations Fail? the Importance of Luck, Timing, and Political Institutions," IMF Working Papers 2002/228, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    6. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2024. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in Emerging Market economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 283-312, February.
    7. Rapetti, Martin & Palazzo, Gabriel & Waldman, Joaquin, 2023. "Planes de estabilización: Evidencia de América Latina [Stabilization plans: Evidence from Latin America]," MPRA Paper 118910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    10. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Pizzati, Lodovico, 2005. "Disinflation and the supply side," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 596-620, December.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ozlem Aytac, 2008. "A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey," Caepr Working Papers 2008-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    15. Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Why Have So Many Disinflations Succeeded?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(1), pages 89-106, January.
    16. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4215-4281, Elsevier.
    17. Federico Echenique & Alvaro Forteza, 2000. "Are stabilization programs expansionary?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 65-89.
    18. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Daniel Aromi & Marcos Dal Bianco, 2014. "Un analisis de los desequilibrios del tipo de cambio real argentino bajo cambios de regimen," Working Papers 1431, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    20. Birdsall, Nancy & de la Torre, Augusto & Caicedo, Felipe Valencia, 2010. "The Washington consensus : assessing a damaged brand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5316, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:327-345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.