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A Critical View of Inflation Targeting: Crises, Limited Sustainability, and Aggregate Shocks

Author

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  • Michael Kumhof

Abstract

November 2000 This paper presents a critical appraisal of inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime for emerging markets. It is shown that this policy, if understood as a strict commitment to a CPI inflation target, shares many features with exchange rate targeting and is quite different from inflexible exchange rates under money growth rules. Inflation targets are vulnerable to speculative attacks, although less so than exchange rate targets. They perform worse than exchange rate targets when policy sustainability is limited. And their relative performance under exogenous shocks, not surprisingly, depends on the nature and direction of those shocks. Given this lack of an obvious advantage over exchange rate targets, the real attraction of inflation targets may be that they give the policymaker discretion. This, in the context of many emerging markets, has to be a cause for concern. Keywords: intellectual property rights, copyright, sui generis protection of expressive material, economics of information-goods, open science, "fair use," scientific databases. JEL Classification: H4, K39, O31, O34 -->

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kumhof, 2000. "A Critical View of Inflation Targeting: Crises, Limited Sustainability, and Aggregate Shocks," Working Papers 00022, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:00022
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    File URL: http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/workp/swp00022.pdf
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Roland Craigwell & Kevin Greenidge & Harold Codrington & Mr. Rupert D Worrell, 2003. "Economic Resilience with An Exchange Rate Peg: The Barbados Experience, 1985-2000," IMF Working Papers 2003/168, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Cömert, 2016. "Implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg under inflation targeting regimes: the case of Turkey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(6), pages 1553-1580.
    5. Marko Malovic, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets: A Showdown for Few Theoretical Misconceptions," Economic Analysis, Institute of Economic Sciences, vol. 40(1-2), pages 17-28.
    6. Javier Reyes, 2007. "Exchange Rate Passthrough Effects and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: What is the Relationship?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 538-559, August.
    7. Zafar Hayat & Saher Masood, 2022. "Inflation Targeting Skepticism: Myth or Reality? A Way Forward for Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • K39 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Other
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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