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Structural Breaks And Unit Roots In Australian Macroeconomic Time Series

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  • PareshKumar Narayan
  • Russell Smyth

Abstract

We examine the unit root properties of 16 Australian macroeconomic time series using monthly data spanning the period 1960-2004. In addition to the standard Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, we implement one- and two-break endogenous structural break ADF-type unit root tests as well as one- and two-break Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests. While the ADF test provides relatively little evidence against the unit root null hypothesis, once we allow for structural breaks we are able to reject the unit root null for just under half of the variables at the 10% level or better. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • PareshKumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Structural Breaks And Unit Roots In Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 421-437, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:4:p:421-437
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1993. "The Dynamics of High Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
    2. Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2015. "Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 154-161.
    3. Charley Xia and William Griffiths, 2012. "Bayesian Unit Root Testing: The Effect Of Choice Of Prior On Test Outcomes," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1152, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    5. VALADKHANI, A. & LAYTON, Allan P. & PAHLAVANI, M., 2005. "Multiple Structural Breaks In Australia’S Macroeconomic Data: An Application Of The Lumsdaine And Papell Test," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 31-44.
    6. Md. Shahiduzzaman & Khorshed Alam, 2014. "A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: the case of Australia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 323-344, April.
    7. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    8. Shahiduzzaman, Md & Alam, Khorshed, 2012. "A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: A case of Australia," MPRA Paper 36256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ramphul Ohlan, 2015. "The impact of population density, energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness on CO 2 emissions in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1409-1428, November.
    10. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan, 2010. "Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1953-1962, June.
    11. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Javier Ordóñez, 2014. "Stochastic Regional Convergence in China: The Role of Regional Clusters in a Nonlinear Perspective (1952–2007)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 153-169, May.
    12. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2014. "The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 623-633.
    13. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Are fluctuations in production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Monash Economics Working Papers 05-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
    15. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    16. Waheed, Muhammad & Alam, Tasneem & Ghauri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2006. "Structural breaks and unit root: evidence from Pakistani macroeconomic time series," MPRA Paper 1797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Anthony Makin & Paresh Narayan, 2013. "Re-examining the “twin deficits” hypothesis: evidence from Australia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 817-829, October.
    18. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 63-70.
    19. Hsu, Yi-Chung & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2008. "Revisited: Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? New evidence from a panel SURADF approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2314-2330, September.

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